Short answer: Ten Year Notes (ZN) has extended its bearish sequence after breaking below the October 2023 low, signaling that the next leg lower is underway. The decline from the August 26, 2026 peak is unfolding as a 5-wave impulse, with wave ((iv)) proposed complete as a flat structure at 106’11 and the market now turning lower in wave ((v)).
The key level to watch: 107’28. As long as this pivot holds intact, rallies should fail within 3 or 7 swings for further downside pressure. A decisive break below 105’21 is required to confirm the next leg lower.
ZN Elliott Wave [Video]
What is the current Elliott Wave count for Ten Year Notes (ZN)?
The instrument has extended its bearish sequence from the August 26, 2026 high in a clear five-wave Elliott Wave impulse structure:
|
Wave leg |
Price level |
Structure and description |
|
Wave ((i)) |
107’085 |
First wave decline from Aug 26 peak |
|
Wave ((ii)) |
107’28 |
Corrective rally (Key Invalidation Pivot) |
|
Wave ((iii)) |
105’21 |
Impulsive extension lower |
|
Wave ((iv)) |
106’11 |
Flat correction: (a) to 106’11, (b) to 105’21, (c) to 106’11 |
|
Wave ((v)) |
Turning lower |
Active leg lower; pending confirmation |
What is a flat Correction?
A flat structure is a 3-wave corrective pattern (labeled a-b-c) where wave (a) advances, wave (b) retakes lost ground down to the start of wave (a), and wave (c) completes the structure near the height of wave (a) before the primary trend resumes.
What will confirm continuation of the impulse lower?
While the market has turned lower in wave ((v)), a decisive break beneath the 105’21 level remains necessary. Breaking this level eliminates the possibility of a double correction and confirms continuation of the impulsive move down.
What serves as the key invalidation level?
The pivot at 107’28 serves as the critical near-term invalidation level. As long as this pivot remains intact, corrective rallies should encounter selling pressure and fail within either a 3-swing or 7-swing sequence, favoring the broader bearish outlook in Ten Year Notes.
