The coming week (September 28, 2026–October 4, 2026) will be a transitional period between months and quarters. Unexpected market movements related to large investors rebalancing their portfolios cannot be ruled out.
At the same time, market participants will be assessing key macroeconomic data from the US, Germany, the Eurozone, the UK, Australia, Switzerland, China, and Japan, as well as the outcome of the RBA meeting.
The main event will be Friday’s release of US labor market data for September.
Meanwhile, the situation in the Middle East and oil price movements continue to influence the market.
Note: During the coming week, new events may be added to the calendar, and/or some scheduled events may be canceled. GMT time.
The article covers the following subjects:
Major Takeaways
- Monday: None scheduled.
- Tuesday: RBA interest rate decision, US consumer confidence (CB).
- Wednesday: Australian CPI, Chinese PMI, German retail sales, UK GDP, German CPI, US ADP employment report, US GDP (final estimate for Q2), US PCE, Japanese Tankan index for large manufacturers.
- Thursday: Australian trade balance, Swiss CPI, US ISM Manufacturing PMI, Japanese CPI.
- Friday: Eurozone CPI, US labor market data for September.
- Key event: US labor market data for September.
Monday, September 28
There are no important macroeconomic statistics scheduled for release.
Tuesday, September 29
04:30 – AUD: Reserve Bank of Australia’s Interest Rate Decision. RBA Accompanying Statement
The Australian economy’s primary challenges include sluggish wage growth, a weak labor market, and a slowdown in growth rates.
At its February 2026 meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates by 0.25%, the first increase since December 2025. In May, the rate was raised again to 4.35%. The Australian dollar strengthened after these decisions, although the hikes were largely expected by the market. RBA Governor Michele Bullock said after the meeting that inflation remains too high and will take more time to return to target levels. She also stressed that future policy decisions will depend on incoming data. Overall, the risk of rates staying high or rising further remains, supporting the Australian dollar.
Prior to and after the decision, RBA officials did not rule out the possibility of further policy tightening if new signs of consumer inflation emerged.
The RBA may raise interest rates again at the upcoming meeting, given the sharp rise in energy prices, particularly oil, resulting from the military conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, causing inflation to accelerate.
In the accompanying statement, the RBA will explain the reasons for the rate decision. If the RBA signals the possibility of monetary easing in the near term, the risks of the Australian dollar depreciating will increase. Conversely, the hawkish rhetoric of the RBA’s accompanying statement may lead to a strengthening of the Australian dollar.
05:30 – AUD: RBA Press Conference
Michele Bullock will assess the current state of Australia’s economy and outline her department’s monetary policy plans. Market participants anticipate her insights on the central bank’s policies amid global recessionary trends and elevated inflation levels in Australia. Any signals regarding her plans to adjust the RBA’s monetary policy parameters will cause a volatility surge in the Australian currency and stock market.
14:00 – USD: US Consumer Confidence Index
The Conference Board’s survey of nearly 3,000 US households evaluates current and future economic conditions and overall economic sentiment. Consumer confidence in the country’s economic development and stability is a key indicator of consumer spending and, consequently, economic performance. High confidence levels suggest economic growth, while low levels indicate stagnation.
Previous indicator values: 89.4, 90.8, 91.2, 93.1, 92.8, 91.8, 91.2, 84.5, 89.1, 88.7, 94.6, 94.2, 97.4, 97.2, 93.0, 98.0, 86.0, 92.9, 98.3, 104.1 in January 2025, 104.7 in December 2024, 111.7, 108.7, 98.7, 103.3, 100.3, 100.4, 102.0, 97.0, 104.7, 106.7, 114.8, 110.7, 102.0, 102.6, 103.0, 106.1, 117.0, 109.7, 102.3, 101.3, 104.2.
An increase in the indicator values will bolster the US dollar exchange rate, while a decrease will weaken it.
Wednesday, September 30
01:30 – AUD: Australian Consumer Price Index. Australia Trimmed Mean Inflation Rate
The Consumer Price Inflation Index, published by the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Australian Bureau of Statistics, gauges retail prices of goods and services in Australia. The CPI is the most significant indicator of inflation and changes in consumer preferences. A high indicator reading is positive for the Australian dollar, while a low reading is negative.
Previous values YoY: +3.5% in July, +3.8% in June, +4.2% in April, +4.6% in March, +3.7% in February, +3.8% in January 2026 and December 2025, +3.4% in November, +3.8% in October, +3.6% in September, +3.2% in August, +3.0% in July, +1.9% in June, +2.1% in May, +2.4% in April, March, and February, +2.5% in January 2025, +2.5% in December 2024, +2.3% in November, +2.1% in October and September, +2.7% in August 2024.
The Australian central bank’s CPI inflation target ranges between 2% and 3%. According to the minutes of the recent RBA Board meeting, inflation risks have shifted to the upside. Some market participants are already pricing in an increase to 4.85% in 2026, which supports the Australian dollar in the medium term.
The expected positive CPI reading will likely strengthen the Australian dollar. If the indicator readings are worse than the forecast or the previous value, the Australian dollar will face short-term negative effects.
The trimmed mean measure of core inflation in Australia is published by the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Australian Bureau of Statistics. It reflects the retail price of goods and services included in the consumer basket. The trimmed mean takes into account the weighted average of the middle 70% of index components.
Previous YoY values: +3.6% in July, June, and May, +3.4%, +3.3% in March, February, and January 2026, +3.3% in December 2025, +3.2%, +3.3%, +3.2%, +3.0%, +3.0%, +2.8%, +3.0%, +3.1% in April 2025.
The data suggest that inflationary pressures remain robust. If the indicator reading turns out to be worse than expected, the Australian dollar will likely weaken. Conversely, if the indicator value exceeds the forecast, it may positively impact the currency in the short term.
01:30 – CNY: China’s Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP)
This indicator is an essential gauge of the overall Chinese economy. An indicator reading above 50 is positive for the yuan, while a value below 50 is negative for the currency.
Previous values: 49.8, 49.2, 50.3, 50.0, 50.3, 50.4, 49.0, 49.3 in January 2026, 50.1 in December 2025, 49.2, 49.0, 49.8, 49.4, 49.7, 49.5, 50.5, 50.2, 49.1 in January 2025, 50.1 (December 2024), 50.3, 50.1, 49.8, 49.1, 49.4, 49.5, 50.4, 50.8, 49.2, 49.0, 49.5, 50.2, 49.3, 49.0, 48.8, 49.2, 51.9, 52.6, 50.1 in January. The relative rise in the index above 50 strengthens the yuan. Data above 50 indicates increased economic activity, positively affecting the national currency. Conversely, if the index value is below 50, the yuan will face pressure and probably decline.
Likewise, the non-manufacturing PMI assesses business conditions in China’s services and construction sectors. An indicator result above 50 is seen as positive for the yuan. Previous values: 49.0, 49.0, 50.2, 50.1, 49.4, 50.1, 49.5, 49.4 in January 2026, 50.2 in December 2025, 49.5, 50.1, 50.0, 50.3, 50.5, 50.3, 50.8, 50.4, 50.2 in January 2025, 52.2 in December 2024, 50.0, 50.2, 50.0, 50.3, 50.2, 50.5, 51.2, 53.0, 50.7, 50.4, 50.6, 51.7, 51.5, 53.2, 54.5, 56.4, 58.2, 56.3, 54.4 in January. The indicator is still above the 50 value, likely influencing the yuan positively. Conversely, the indicator below 50 suggests that the yuan will face pressure and probably decline.
01:45 – CNY: RatingDog China Services and Manufacturing PMI
The RatingDog Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), released by Caixin Insight Group and S&P Global, is a leading indicator gauging business activity in China’s services sector. Since China is the world’s second-largest economy, its macroeconomic data releases can strongly influence financial markets.
Previous values: 51.4, 50.1, 54.1, 54.4, 52.6, 52.1, 56.7, 52.3 in January 2026, 52.0 in December 2025, 52.6, 52.9 in September 2025.
Although an index value above 50 indicates growth, a relative decline in the indicator may adversely affect the yuan. Since China is the most important trade and economic partner of Australia and New Zealand, a deterioration in Chinese macro data may negatively impact the Australian and New Zealand dollars. Conversely, an increase in Chinese macro figures is usually positive for these currencies.
The RatingDog Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), released by Caixin Insight Group and S&P Global, is a leading indicator gauging business activity in China’s manufacturing sector. Since China is the world’s second-largest economy, its macroeconomic data releases can strongly influence financial markets.
Previous values: 51.5, 50.9, 51.7, 51.8, 52.2, 52.1, 50.1 in December 2025, 49.9, 50.6, 51.2 in September 2025.
A decline in the indicator value and a reading below 50 may negatively affect the renminbi, as well as commodity currencies such as the New Zealand and Australian dollar. Data that exceeds forecasted or previous values will have a positive impact on these currencies.
06:00 – EUR: German Retail Sales
Retail sales are the main indicator of consumer spending in Germany. A high indicator reading boosts the euro, while a low one weakens the currency.
Previous figures: -3.4% (-2.5% YoY), 0% (+0.6% YoY), +1.2% (+2.1% YoY), -0.4% (-0.6% YoY), -0.1% (-2.7% YoY), -0.4% (+0.9% YoY), -1.1% (+1.1% YoY) in January 2026, +1.7% (+4.9% YoY) in December 2025.
The data suggests that the German economy’s recovery has been uneven, with some months experiencing a slowdown. Indicator readings higher than forecasted and/or previous values are likely positive for the euro in the short term.
06:00 – GBP: UK GDP in Q2 2026 (Final Estimate)
GDP is viewed as an indicator of the UK economy’s condition. The growing GDP indicator is considered positive for the British pound. The UK GDP rate was one of the highest in the world until 2016, when the Brexit referendum occurred. Subsequently, its growth decelerated, and with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the UK GDP rate dropped.
The final estimate for Q2 implies that UK GDP has risen again. Overall, this is a positive factor for the British pound.
Previous GDP figures: +0.6% in Q1 2026, +0.1% in Q4 2025, +0.1% in Q3, +0.2% in Q2, +0.7% in Q1 2025, +0.3% in Q4 2024, +0.2% in Q3, +0.6% in Q2, +0.8% in Q1 2024.
The key factors that may force the Bank of England to keep the rate low include weak GDP, slow labor market growth, and low consumer spending. Should the GDP data fall significantly below previous values, the pound will face downward pressure. Conversely, high GDP readings will bolster the currency.
The preliminary estimate stood at +0.4%.
12:00 – EUR: German Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (Preliminary Estimate)
The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is published by the European Statistics Office and is calculated using a methodology agreed upon by all EU countries. The HICP is an indicator for measuring inflation and is used by the European Central Bank to assess price stability. A positive index result strengthens the euro, while a negative one weakens it.
Previous values: +2.9%, +2.8%, +2.4%, +2.7%, +2.9%, +2.8%, +2.0%, +2.1% in January 2026, +2.0%, +2.6%, +2.3%, +2.4%, +2.1%, +1.8%, +2.0%, +2.1%, +2.2%, +2.3%, +2.6%, +2.8% in January 2025.
The data indicate that inflation remains high and even accelerates periodically, which, in turn, is forcing the ECB to tighten its monetary policy, especially given the risks of recession in the Eurozone.
If the index value turns out to be lower than the previous one, the euro may weaken. Conversely, if inflation resumes rising, the euro may strengthen. An increase in the index is a positive factor for the euro.
If the September reading proves higher than the previous one, the euro may appreciate in the short term.
12:15 – USD: ADP Private Sector Employment Report
The ADP report on private sector employment significantly impacts the market and the US dollar. An increase in this indicator value positively affects the greenback. The number of workers in the US private sector is expected to increase in September after posting 38k in August 46k in July, 95k in June, 122k in May, +105k in April, +61k in March, +66k in February, +11k in January, +37k in December 2025, -29k in November, +47k in October, -29k in September, -3k in August, +106k in July, -23k in June, +29k in May, +60k in April, +147k in March, +84k in February, +186k in January 2025, +176k in December 2024,+146k in November, +184k in October, +159k in September, +103k in August, +111k in July, +155k in June, +157k in May, +188k in April, +208k in March, +155k in February, +111k in January 2024, +158k in December, +104k in November, +111k in October, +137k in September, +135k in August, +307k in July, +543k in June, +206k in May, +293k in April, +103k in March, +275k in February, +131k in January 2023.
The growth of the index values may positively affect the US dollar, while low index readings may adversely influence it. A negative market reaction and a potential decline in the dollar may occur if the data turns out to be worse than forecasted.
The ADP report is not directly correlated with the official data of the US Department of Labor, which is due on Friday. However, the ADP report often serves as a forerunner of the department’s data and significantly influences the market.
12:30 – USD: US GDP Annual Growth Rate for Q2 (Final Estimate). Personal Consumption Expenditures (Core PCE Price Index)
GDP is one of the key indicators, along with labor market and inflation data, for the US Fed in terms of its monetary policy. A positive indicator reading strengthens the US dollar, while a weak GDP report is harmful for the currency. In Q1 2026, GDP posted +2.1% after +0.5% in Q4 2025, +4.4% in Q3, +3.8% in Q2, -0.6% in Q1, +1.9% in Q4 2024, +3.3% in Q3, +3.6% in Q2, +0.8% in Q1 2024, +3.4% in Q4 2023.
If the data indicate a decline in GDP in Q2 2026, the US dollar will face significant pressure. Conversely, positive GDP figures will bolster the greenback and US stock indices.
The preliminary estimate stood at +1.5%.
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data reflect the average amount of money consumers spend per month on durable goods, consumer goods, and services. The core PCE price index excludes food and energy prices. The annual core PCE is the main inflation gauge used by the US Fed as the primary inflation indicator.
The inflation rate, along with the labor market and GDP data, is crucial for the Fed in determining its monetary policy. Growing prices exert pressure on the central bank to tighten its policy and raise interest rates.
The PCE data above the forecasted and/or previous values may boost the US dollar, while a decline in the reading will likely exert a negative impact on the greenback.
Previous values YoY: +3.3% in July and June, +3.4% in May, +3.3% in April, +3.2% in March, +3.0%, +3.1% in January 2026, +3.0% in December 2025, +2.8%, +2.8%, +2.8%, +2.9%, +2.9%, +2.8%, +2.8%, +2.6%, +2.7%, +3.0%, +2.8% in January 2025.
23:50 – JPY: Tankan Large Manufacturing Index for Q3 2026
The index reflects general business conditions for Japan’s large manufacturing companies and estimates the current state of Japan’s export-oriented economy, which is heavily dependent on the industrial sector.
The index value above 0, the midline, is positive for the Japanese yen, while a reading below 0 is negative.
Previous quarterly values: 22 in Q2, 17 in Q1 2026, 15 in Q4 2025, 14, 13, 12 in Q1 2025, 14 in Q4 2024, 13, 13, 11, 13, 9, 5, 1 in Q1 2023. A relative rise in the indicator will bolster the yen, while a relative decline, especially a slide into negative territory, will exert pressure on the currency.
Thursday, October 1
00:30 – AUD: Balance of Trade
The Balance of Trade is an indicator that measures the ratio of exports to imports. An increase in Australian exports leads to a larger trade surplus, positively affecting the Australian dollar. Previous figures (in billions of Australian dollars): +1.923 in July, +2.341 in June, -2.367 in May, 1.587 in April, -1.710 in March, 5.092 in February, 2.397 in January 2026, 3.467 in December 2025.
A decrease in the trade surplus could negatively affect the Australian dollar, while an increase in the indicator figure may bolster the currency.
06:30 – CHF: Switzerland Consumer Price Index
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) reflects the retail price trends for a group of goods and services comprising the consumer basket. The CPI is a key gauge of inflation. Additionally, the index has a significant impact on the value of the Swiss franc.
In August 2026, consumer inflation posted +0.4% (+0.8% YoY), following -0.1% (+0.4% YoY), 0% (+0.5% YoY), +0.2% (+0.6% YoY), +0.3% (+0.6% YoY), +0.2% (+0.3% YoY), +0.6% (+0.1% YoY), -0.1% (+0.1% YoY), and 0% (+0.1% YoY) in December 2025.
An index reading below the forecasted or previous value may weaken the Swiss franc, as low inflation will force the Swiss Central Bank to ease its monetary policy. Conversely, a high reading would be positive for the Swiss franc.
14:00 – USD: US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index
The US PMI, published by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), is an important measure of the US economy. When the index surpasses 50, it bolsters the US dollar, whereas readings below 50 have a detrimental effect on the greenback.
Previous values: 54.6, 55.6, 53.3, 54.0, 52.7, 52.7, 52.4, 52.6 in January 2026, 47.9 in December 2025, 48.0, 48.8, 48.9, 48.9, 48.4, 49.0, 48.6, 48.8, 48.9, 50.0, 50.9 in January 2025, 49.2 in December 2024.
The growth of index values supports the US dollar. Conversely, if the index reading falls below the forecasted values or below 50, the greenback may sharply depreciate in the short term.
23:30 – JPY: Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI). Tokyo Core CPI excluding Food and Energy
Tokyo’s consumer price index, published by the Statistics Bureau of Japan, measures the change in the prices of a selected basket of goods and services over a given period. Since Tokyo is the most densely populated region in Japan, this index is considered a key indicator for assessing inflation and consumer preferences.
Previous values YoY:
- Tokyo CPI: +1.9%, +1.8%, +1.7%, +1.4%, +1.5%, +1.4%, +1.5%, +1.5%, +2.0%, +2.7%, +2.8%, +2.5%, +2.6%, +2.9%, +3.1%, +3.4%, +3.5%, +2.9%, +2.9%, +3.4%, +3.1%, +2.6%, +1.8%, +2.1%, +2.6%, 2.2%, +2.3%, +2.2%, +1.8%, +2.6%, +2.5%, +1.8%, +2.4%, +2.6%, +3.3%, +2.8%, +2.9%, +3.2%, +3.2%, +3.2%, +3.5%, +3.3%, + 3.4%, +4.4% in January 2023;
- Tokyo CPI excluding food and energy: +2.0%, +1.8%, +1.9%, +1.6%, +1.9%, +2.3%, +2.5%, +2.4%, +2.6%, +2.8%, +2.8%, +2.5%, +3.0%, +3.1%, +3.1%, +2.1%, +2.0%, +1.1%, +2.2%, +2.5%, +2.4%, +2.2%, +1.8%, +1.6%, +1.6%, +1.5%, +1.8%, +2.2%, +1.8%, +2.9%, +3.1%, +3.3%, +3.5%, +3.6%, +3.8%, +4.0%, +4.0%, +4.0%, +3.8%, +3.9%, +3.8%, +3.4%, +3.1%, +3.0% in January 2023.
The indicator reading lower than forecasted and/or previous values may weaken the yen, while a rise in the indicator may strengthen the currency.
Friday, October 2
09:00 – EUR: Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices. Core HICP (Flash)
The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is published by Eurostat and measures the change in prices of a selected basket of goods and services over a specific period. The index is a key indicator for assessing inflation and changes in consumer preferences. A positive reading strengthens the euro, while a negative reading weakens it.
Previous figures YoY: +3.2%, +2.9%, +2.8%, +3.2%, +3.0%, +2.6%, +1.9%, +1.7% in January 2026, +2.0% in December 2025.
If the data is worse than the forecasted value, the euro may face a short-term but sharp decline. Conversely, if the data surpasses the forecast and/or the previous value, it could strengthen the euro in the short term. The ECB’s consumer inflation target is just below 2.0%, and the reading suggests that inflation continues to rise in the Eurozone.
The ECB is signaling that monetary policy is likely to be tightened, which is a bullish factor for the euro.
The Core Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (Core HICP) measures the price change of a selected basket of goods and services over a specified period and serves as a key indicator for assessing inflation and consumer preferences. Food and energy are excluded from this indicator in order to provide a more accurate assessment. A high result strengthens the euro, while a low one weakens it.
Previous figures YoY: +2.4%, +2.5%, +2.4%, +2.6%, +2.2%, +2.3%, +2.4%, +2.2% in January 2026, +2.3% in December 2025.
If the September 2026 figures are weaker than the previous or forecasted value, the euro may be negatively affected. If the data turns out to be better than the forecasted or previous value, the currency will likely grow.
According to recently reported data, the eurozone’s core inflation rate is still high, above the ECB’s target of 2.0%. As a result, the ECB is inclined to maintain high interest rates, which is favorable for the euro in normal economic conditions.
12:30 – USD: Average Hourly Earnings. Nonfarm Payrolls. Unemployment Rate
The most significant US labor market indicators for September.
Previous values: +0.3% in August, +0.2% in July, +0.3% in June and May, +0.2% in April and March, +0.4% in February and January 2026, +0.1% in December 2025 / 57,000 in June, 129,000 in May, 148,000 in April, 214,000 in March, -156,000 in February, 160,000 in January 2026, -17,000 in December 2025 / 4.2% in June, 4.3% in May, April, and March, 4.4% in February, 4.3% in January 2026, 4.4% in December 2025.
Overall, the data is broadly positive, except for the sharp drop in July nonfarm payrolls, which goes against expectations for growth, and downward revisions to the figures for April through June. However, it is often difficult to predict how the market will react because previous data may be revised. This is even more challenging now, as the economic outlook in the US and other major economies remains mixed, with risks of both recession and high inflation.
Regardless, the release of the US labor market data is anticipated to prompt increased volatility not just in the US dollar but also in the entire financial market. Most risk-averse investors will probably prefer to stay out of the market during this period.
Saturday, October 3
Australia switches to daylight saving time.
Price chart of USDX in real time mode
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