A quick snapshot of central bank rate expectations ahead of the week’s events. We have CA CPI, UK CPI, the RBNZ decision and Jackson Hole so BoC, BoE, RBNZ and FOMC pricing is the most important. Given the recent data we’ve seen across the board, as well as the current global trade context, it will take quite a lot…
United States (US) President Donald Trump has landed in Alaska, as he gears up for his sit-down meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin to negotiate a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodimir Zelenskiy is not in attendance. According to market rumors, President Trump is prepared to offer Russia “rare earth minerals” access, ostensibly in Alaska, in…
Prior -0.9% (revised to -1.5%) Wholesale trade m/m 0.7% vs 0.7% expected Prior 0.1% Manufacturing sales edged up 0.3% to $68.5 billion in June, following four consecutive monthly declines. Sales rose in 13 of 21 subsectors, led by the petroleum and coal (+11.8%) and food (+2.5%) product subsectors. These increases were partly offset by a 5.0% decline in the…
the NZD/USD set for 0.49% weekly loss, trading near 0.5923 after rejection from 0.5994 resistance. Pair slips below 50 and 100-day SMAs, turning them into key short-term resistance levels. RSI momentum shifts bearish, opening the path toward 0.5900 and August lows near 0.5856. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) halted its rally and turned negative, poised to finish 0.49% down…
The U.S. Consumer Price Index delivered a mixed but largely in-line reading for July 2025, with headline inflation holding steady at 2.7% year-on-year while core CPI ticked up to 3.1%. The data supported the idea of limited tariff pass-through to consumer prices, providing the Fed room to focus on labor market weakness and cementing September rate cut expectations. …
Prior month 5.500 NY Fed manufacturing index for August 11.90 vs 0.00 est. Details from the NY Fed: General business conditions index up 6 points to 11.9, highest since Nov 2024. New orders index rose 13 points to 15.4, indicating strong order growth. Shipments index steady at 12.2, showing continued gains in shipments. Unfilled orders edged lower. Inventories index…
United States CFTC Oil NC Net Positions: 116.7K vs previous 141.8K
Prior month retail sales 0.6% revised to +0.9% Retail Sales 0.5% vs 0.5% est. Retail sales ex autos 0.3% vs 0.3% est. prior month revised to 0.8% from 0.5% Retail sales ex gas/autos 0.2% vs +0.6% last month. Prior month revised to 0.8% from 0.6% Control group 0.5% vs 0.4% estimate. Prior month revised higher to 0.8% from 0.5%…
United States CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions: $-192.1K vs previous $-139.6K
Will need to see at least one more report to determine if we are still on the golden path There is a note of a note of unease from the last CPI and PPI data. Let’s not over react to one month of PPI, CPI, import prices, but an area of concern. We have added a lot of uncertainty…
