Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 10 bps (99% probability of no change at the next meeting) Rate hikes by year-end RBNZ: 75 bps (69% probability of no change at the next meeting) ECB: 54 bps (79% probability of no change at the next meeting) RBA: 54 bps (78% probability of rate hike at the next meeting) BoJ: 46 bps…
BNY’s Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage argues that USD dynamics are central to Q2 diversification decisions, as the Rest of World equity index has shown a strong correlation with the USD index. With European Central Bank hikes now priced against limited Fed easing odds, EUR/USD has moved higher, while emerging markets face tighter front-end rates due to…
2026.04.17 2026.04.17 US Dollar Weakens on Prospects of US–Iran Agreement. Forecast as of 17.04.2026 Dmitri Demidenkohttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/dmitri-demidenko/ Stock and currency markets are optimistic about the end of the Middle East conflict. Only persistently high oil prices are preventing the EUR/USD pair from rallying further. The US dollar is returning to its long-standing drivers: the Fed’s independence and monetary policy. Let’s…
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At a glance: Mixed geopolitical signals: ceasefire talk offsets escalation risks (Bab al-Mandab threat unverified) Markets lean toward optimism on Trump ceasefire tone despite ongoing uncertainty BoJ flags oil-driven stagflation risk, keeps policy flexible and accommodative China reinforces easing bias and fiscal support; NZ political noise adds mild uncertainty FX subdued; equities softer as traders trim risk into weekend…
The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, currently trades near 98.25 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. The DXY trades on a flat note amid uncertainty surrounding a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. Traders await the prospects for fresh US-Iran talks this weekend for fresh…
With oil above $100 and tax cuts in place, Canada’s CPI tests inflation spread. Will it shift BOC policy and CAD direction?
RBI has asked state refiners to curb spot dollar buying and use FX credit lines to ease pressure on the rupee, as oil prices and capital outflows weigh on the currency. Summary: RBI asks state refiners to curb spot dollar buying to support rupee Oil import FX demand redirected via SBI credit line Rupee hit record lows amid oil…
Finance ministers from the Group of Seven (G7) on Friday emphasized the urgent need to limit the economic repercussions of an ongoing Middle East conflict, highlighting a commitment to pursuing enduring peace. Key quotes G7 finance ministers concluded unanimously it was urgent to limit cost for global economy of an enduring Middle East conflict statement.G7 members are particularly vigilant…
Thursday’s session saw the S&P 500 close at a fresh record high as Trump announced an Israel-Lebanon ceasefire while TSMC’s blockbuster earnings fueled broad AI sector optimism.
