The article covers the following subjects:
Major Takeaways
- Main scenario: Once the correction has been completed, consider short positions below the level of 4,380.00 with a target of 3,593.00–3,127.70. A sell signal: the local correction ends and the price holds below 4,380.00. Stop Loss: above 4,450.00, Take Profit: 3,593.00–3,127.70.
- Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation above the level of 4,380.00 will allow the asset to continue rising to the levels of 4,708.00–4,900.00. A buy signal: the level of 4,380.00 is broken to the upside. Stop Loss: below 4,310.00, Take Profit: 4,708.00–4,900.00.
Main Scenario
Consider short positions below 4,380.00 with a target of 3,593.00–3,127.70 once the correction is completed.
Alternative Scenario
Breakout and consolidation above the level of 4,380.00 will allow the price to continue rising to the levels of 4,708.00–4,900.00.
Analysis
An ascending third wave of larger degree (3) has likely formed on the weekly chart, and a bearish correction is developing as the fourth wave (4). On the daily time frame, wave A of (4) has apparently formed, and a correction has been completed as wave B of (4). On the H4 time frame, wave C of (4) is developing. Within it, the first wave of smaller degree i of C has formed, and a local correction is developing as the second wave ii of C. If this assumption is correct, XAU/USD will resume declining to 3,593.00–3,127.70 after the local correction ends. The level of 4,380.00 is critical in this scenario as a breakout above it will enable the asset to continue rising to the levels of 4,708.00–4,900.00.
This forecast is based on the Elliott Wave Theory. When developing trading strategies, it is essential to consider fundamental factors, as the market situation can change at any time.
Price chart of XAUUSD in real time mode
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