Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad reports that USD/CNH has broken to fresh multi‑year lows near 6.6800 after stronger‑than‑expected China Q3 GDP, which keeps growth on track for the government’s 4.5%–5.0% 2026 target. BBH stresses that structural weaknesses in consumption and investment persist, but still sees the USD/CNH downtrend intact, supported by CNH internationalization and internal rebalancing.

Growth surprise but structural issues linger

“USD/CNH broke to fresh multi-year lows near 6.6800. China’s economy grew more than expected in Q3 and is tracking the government’s 4.5% to 5.0% growth target for 2026. Real GDP was up 1.2% q/q (consensus: 1.0%) vs. 0.9% in Q2 and in the three quarters to the year printed at 4.6% y/y.”

“China’s growth target is used as a policy tool to guide economic/social planning rather than a reflection of underlying supply and demand dynamic. That means the quality and sources of China’s growth is more relevant for investors.”

“From that perspective, China’s long-term economic health remains weak because consumer spending is struggling to gain traction and non-residential fixed asset investment is an ongoing drag. In the first three quarters of the year, retail sales growth was unchanged at 1.1% y/y vs. 1.1% in August, and fixed asset investment growth excluding real estate development fell -4.2% y/y vs. -4.2% in August.”

“Regardless, USD/CNH downtrend is intact in our view reflecting both CNH internationalization potential and China’s internal rebalancing story.”

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)