• Prior +0.9%
• HICP +1.9% vs +1.9% y/y expected
• Prior +1.1%

The headline estimate is the highest since August 2024 as French inflation picks up amid higher energy prices as a result of the US-Iran conflict. The monthly reading shows that consumer prices were up 0.9%, the steepest jump since February 2024.

The breakdown shows that food price inflation was seen at 1.8% (previously 2.0%) and services inflation at 1.7% (previously 1.6%). As such, core prices should keep thereabouts as in February with the latest spike here being largely energy-related. Of note, energy prices surged by 7.3% in March after exhibiting a 2.9% monthly decline in February.

But over time if allowed to become more entrenched, higher energy prices will spill over to other aspects of the economy. That is a lesson that we are already familiar with from the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2021-22.