Five of the world’s largest central banks will announce their interest rate decisions next week (26.10.2026–01.11.2026). The Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the Bank of Canada, and the Federal Reserve will each hold their policy meetings on Wednesday, with the ECB following on Thursday and the Bank of Japan on Friday. Also on Thursday, the US will release preliminary Q3 2026 GDP and PCE data, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. These events alone will keep investors on their toes.
Investors will also be watching other key data from the US, Australia, Japan, China, Germany, and the Eurozone. As a result, the coming week is likely to be highly volatile and offer traders plenty of opportunities to open new positions.
Note that the US will switch to standard time overnight from Saturday to Sunday, November 1. Europe set its clocks back one hour last week.
Note: During the coming week, new events may be added to the calendar, and/or some scheduled events may be canceled. GMT time.
The article covers the following subjects:
Major Takeaways
- Monday: No major data releases
- Tuesday: ECB Bank Lending Survey, US consumer confidence
- Wednesday: Australia CPI, RBNZ rate decision, Bank of Canada rate decision, Fed rate decision
- Thursday: US GDP, US PCE price index, ECB rate decision, Japan CPI
- Friday: BoJ rate decision, Germany GDP, Eurozone GDP, Germany CPI
- Saturday: China PMIs
- Key event of the week: Fed rate decision
Monday, October 26
No major macroeconomic statistics are scheduled for release.
Tuesday, October 27
09:00 – EUR: Euro Area Bank Lending Survey (BLS)
A survey of the bank lending system conducted by EU experts in the financial sector is carried out four times a year. The primary goal of the survey is to gather comprehensive information about the conditions of bank lending in the Eurozone.
The ECB officials use this data when making decisions on the bank’s monetary policy. This report may cause increased volatility in the euro and European stock market quotes upon its release if it contains unexpected conclusions regarding lending conditions for businesses and households in the Eurozone.
14:00 – USD: US Consumer Confidence Index
The Conference Board’s survey of nearly 3,000 US households evaluates current and future economic conditions and overall economic sentiment. Consumer confidence in the country’s economic development and stability is a key indicator of consumer spending and, consequently, economic performance. High confidence levels suggest economic growth, while low levels indicate stagnation.
Previous indicator values: 81.9, 89.4, 90.8, 91.2, 93.1, 92.8, 91.8, 91.2, 84.5, 89.1, 88.7, 94.6, 94.2, 97.4, 97.2, 93.0, 98.0, 86.0, 92.9, 98.3, 104.1 in January 2025, 104.7 in December 2024, 111.7, 108.7, 98.7, 103.3, 100.3, 100.4, 102.0, 97.0, 104.7, 106.7, 114.8, 110.7, 102.0, 102.6, 103.0, 106.1, 117.0, 109.7, 102.3, 101.3, 104.2.
An increase in the indicator values will bolster the US dollar exchange rate, while a decrease will weaken it.
Wednesday, October 28
00:15 – AUD: Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock’s Speech
Michele Bullock will assess the current state of Australia’s economy and outline her department’s monetary policy. Market participants anticipate her insights on the central bank’s policies amid global recessionary trends, rising energy prices caused by the military conflict in the Middle East, and elevated inflation levels in Australia.
Any signals regarding her plans to adjust the RBA’s monetary policy parameters will cause a sharp surge in the Australian currency and stock market volatility. If the Australian Central Bank Governor avoids discussing monetary policy, the market response will be muted.
00:30 – AUD: Australian Consumer Price Index. Australia Trimmed Mean Inflation Rate
The Consumer Price Index, published by the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Australian Bureau of Statistics, gauges retail prices of goods and services in Australia. The CPI is the most significant indicator of inflation and changes in consumer preferences. A high indicator reading is positive for the Australian dollar, while a low reading is negative.
Previous values YoY: +4.0% in August, +3.5% in July, +3.8% in June, +4.2% in April, +4.6% in March, +3.7% in February, +3.8% in January 2026 and December 2025, +3.4% in November, +3.8% in October, +3.6% in September, +3.2% in August, +3.0% in July, +1.9% in June, +2.1% in May, +2.4% in April, March, and February, +2.5% in January 2025, +2.5% in December 2024, +2.3% in November, +2.1% in October and September, +2.7% in August 2024.
The Australian central bank’s CPI inflation target ranges between 2% and 3%. According to the minutes of the recent RBA Board meeting, inflation risks have shifted to the upside. Some market participants are already pricing in an increase to 4.85% in 2026, which supports the Australian dollar in the medium term.
The expected positive CPI reading will likely strengthen the Australian dollar. If the indicator readings are worse than the forecast or the previous value, the Australian dollar will face short-term negative effects.
The trimmed mean measure of core inflation in Australia is published by the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Australian Bureau of Statistics. It reflects the retail price of goods and services included in the consumer basket. The trimmed mean takes into account the weighted average of the middle 70% of index components.
Previous YoY values: +3.6% in August, July, June, and May, +3.4%, +3.3% in March, February, and January 2026, +3.3% in December 2025, +3.2%, +3.3%, +3.2%, +3.0%, +3.0%, +2.8%, +3.0%, +3.1% in April 2025.
The data suggest that inflationary pressures remain robust. If the indicator reading turns out to be worse than expected, the Australian dollar will likely weaken. Conversely, if the indicator value exceeds the forecast, it may positively impact the currency in the short term.
01:00 – NZD: Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s Interest Rate Decision. RBNZ Monetary Policy Review
Previously, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) indicated that the economy no longer required the same level of monetary stimulus. Afterward, the bank decided to ease monetary policy in August 2024, reducing the official cash rate by 0.25% to 5.25%. Prior to this change, the RBNZ maintained a pause for eight consecutive meetings. In October and November, the rate was cut again by 0.50% each time. In 2025, the RBNZ continued its policy-easing cycle, reducing the interest rate to its current level of 2.25%. In July 2026, the rate was raised by 0.25% for the first time since November 2025. Currently, it stands at 2.75%.
After the Reserve Bank of New Zealand announced its decision to lift the interest rate, the New Zealand dollar dropped. Apparently, investors were focused not on the rate hike itself, but rather on the central bank’s cautious statements regarding further monetary policy tightening.
The RBNZ believes that acting now reduces the risk of sharper rate hikes later. At the same time, it stressed that future decisions will continue to depend on the balance of risks to inflation over the medium term.
At the upcoming meeting, the RBNZ may raise rates again. Alternatively, it may keep its current policy settings unchanged for now.
Market participants monitoring the New Zealand dollar’s performance should be prepared for a notable uptick in volatility during this time.
In the Monetary Policy Review and commentary, the RBNZ officials will explain the interest rate decision and the economic factors that influenced it.
13:45 – CAD: Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision and Accompanying Statement
At its June 5, 2024, meeting, the Bank of Canada cut its interest rate by 0.25% to 4.75% for the first time since July 2023. Over the course of 2024, it reduced the rate by a total of 1.75% (175 basis points), and in October 2025, brought it down further to the current 2.25%.
It is unclear what decision the Bank of Canada’s policymakers will make this time, given the ongoing events in the Middle East and the sharp rise in oil prices. The bank may decide to take a pause at this meeting.
The hawkish tone of the Bank of Canada’s accompanying statement regarding the outlook for monetary policy will bolster the Canadian dollar. If the Bank of Canada signals its intention to pursue an accommodative monetary policy, the currency will weaken.
14:30 – CAD: Bank of Canada Press Conference
During the press conference, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem will outline the bank’s stance and assess the country’s current economic situation. If the tone of his remarks appears hawkish, the Canadian dollar will strengthen in the currency market. If Tiff Macklem advocates maintaining a loose monetary policy, the Canadian currency will weaken. In any case, the Canadian dollar is expected to experience high volatility during his remarks.
18:00 – USD: US Fed Interest Rate Decision. Fed Commentary on Monetary Policy
As former Fed Chair Powell previously noted, the US central bank’s leadership has shifted its focus toward maintaining stability in the labor market. At the same time, Powell emphasized that interest rate decisions would continue to depend on current economic conditions.
However, amid rising inflation in the US, partly driven by higher oil prices, and the hawkish stance of most Fed officials, most market participants expect the central bank to continue tightening monetary policy.
At this meeting, the Fed is expected to keep the interest rate unchanged at 4.00%.
The financial market may experience higher volatility when the rate decision is announced, particularly in the US stock market and the US dollar, especially if the rate decision does not match the forecast or the Fed makes unexpected statements.
Comments by the new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, may affect both short-term and long-term movements of the US dollar. The Fed’s more aggressive approach to monetary policy is a positive factor that would strengthen the US dollar, while a more cautious position is negative for the greenback. Investors eagerly await Warsh’s remarks on the Fed’s future plans.
18:30 – USD: US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee Press Conference
The US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) press conference lasts approximately one hour. It begins with the Chair delivering a prepared statement, followed by a Q&A session with journalists, which can trigger increased market volatility. Any unexpected statements by Warsh regarding the Fed’s monetary policy will spark volatility in the dollar and the US stock market.
Thursday, October 29
12:30 – USD: US GDP Annual Growth Rate for Q3 (Preliminary Estimate). Personal Consumption Expenditures (Core PCE Price Index)
GDP is one of the key indicators, along with labor market and inflation data, for the US Fed in terms of its monetary policy. A positive indicator reading strengthens the US dollar, while a weak GDP report is harmful for the currency. In Q2 2026, GDP posted +2.2% after +2.1% in Q1, +0.5% in Q4 2025, +4.4% in Q3, +3.8% in Q2, -0.6% in Q1, +1.9% in Q4 2024, +3.3% in Q3, +3.6% in Q2, +0.8% in Q1 2024, +3.4% in Q4 2023.
If the data indicate a decline in GDP in Q3 2026, the US dollar will face significant pressure. Conversely, positive GDP figures will bolster the greenback and US stock indices.
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data reflect the average amount of money consumers spend per month on durable goods, consumer goods, and services. The core PCE price index excludes food and energy prices. The annual core PCE is the main inflation gauge used by the US Fed as the primary inflation indicator.
The inflation rate, along with the labor market and GDP data, is crucial for the Fed in determining its monetary policy. Growing prices exert pressure on the central bank to tighten its policy and raise interest rates.
The PCE data above the forecasted and/or previous values may boost the US dollar, while a decline in the reading will likely exert a negative impact on the greenback.
Previous values YoY: +3.0% in August and July, +3.3% in June, +3.4% in May, +3.3% in April, +3.2% in March, +3.0%, +3.1% in January 2026, +3.0% in December 2025, +2.8%, +2.8%, +2.8%, +2.9%, +2.9%, +2.8%, +2.8%, +2.6%, +2.7%, +3.0%, +2.8% in January 2025.
13:15 – EUR: European Central Bank’s Interest Rate Decision. ECB Monetary Policy Statement
The European Central Bank will publish its decision on the main refinancing operations and the deposit facility rates, which currently stand at 2.40% and 2.25%, respectively.
The ECB’s tight stance on inflation and the level of key interest rates favor the euro, while a softer stance and lower rates weaken it. Given the high inflation in the Eurozone, according to the ECB leadership, the risk balance for the eurozone’s economic outlook remains tilted to the downside.
At the same time, the ECB made it clear that if deflation resumes, rates will be lowered again. The ECB believes that GDP growth could slow significantly or even turn negative, partly due to the energy crisis in the EU, a high degree of uncertainty, weaker global economic activity, tighter financing conditions, and the tariff dispute with the US.
Given high oil prices caused by the conflict in the Middle East, the ECB may take a more hawkish stance, despite the high risk of a recession in the Eurozone. However, a pause cannot be ruled out.
A dovish tone in the statements will negatively impact the euro. Conversely, a hawkish tone regarding the central bank’s monetary policy will bolster the euro.
13:45 – EUR: European Central Bank’s Press Conference
This press conference will draw significant attention from market participants. Volatility may increase not only in the euro but also across the entire financial market if the ECB leaders make unexpected statements. ECB executives will evaluate the current economic situation in the Eurozone and provide insights on the bank’s rate decision. Historically, after some ECB meetings and subsequent press conferences, the euro exchange rate experienced fluctuations of 3%–5% in a short time frame.
A dovish tone in the speech will negatively impact the euro. Conversely, a hawkish tone regarding the central bank’s monetary policy will bolster the euro.
23:30 – JPY: Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI). Tokyo Core CPI excluding Food and Energy
Tokyo’s consumer price index, published by the Statistics Bureau of Japan, measures the change in the prices of a selected basket of goods and services over a given period. Since Tokyo is the most densely populated region in Japan, this index is considered a key indicator for assessing inflation and consumer preferences.
Previous values YoY:
- Tokyo CPI: +2.7%, +1.9%, +1.8%, +1.7%, +1.4%, +1.5%, +1.4%, +1.5%, +1.5%, +2.0%, +2.7%, +2.8%, +2.5%, +2.6%, +2.9%, +3.1%, +3.4%, +3.5%, +2.9%, +2.9%, +3.4%, +3.1%, +2.6%, +1.8%, +2.1%, +2.6%, 2.2%, +2.3%, +2.2%, +1.8%, +2.6%, +2.5%, +1.8%, +2.4%, +2.6%, +3.3%, +2.8%, +2.9%, +3.2%, +3.2%, +3.2%, +3.5%, +3.3%, + 3.4%, +4.4% in January 2023;
- Tokyo CPI excluding food and energy: +3.0%, +2.0%, +1.8%, +1.9%, +1.6%, +1.9%, +2.3%, +2.5%, +2.4%, +2.6%, +2.8%, +2.8%, +2.5%, +3.0%, +3.1%, +3.1%, +2.1%, +2.0%, +1.1%, +2.2%, +2.5%, +2.4%, +2.2%, +1.8%, +1.6%, +1.6%, +1.5%, +1.8%, +2.2%, +1.8%, +2.9%, +3.1%, +3.3%, +3.5%, +3.6%, +3.8%, +4.0%, +4.0%, +4.0%, +3.8%, +3.9%, +3.8%, +3.4%, +3.1%, +3.0% in January 2023.
The indicator reading lower than forecasted and/or previous values may weaken the yen, while a rise in the indicator may strengthen the currency.
Friday, October 30
Expected After 03:00 (Exact Time Not Specified) – JPY: Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision. Bank of Japan Press Conference and Commentary on Monetary Policy
The Bank of Japan will decide on the interest rate. Since February 2016, the Bank of Japan has kept the deposit rate at -0.1% and the 10-year bond yield target around 0%. However, at its March 19, 2024, meeting, the Bank of Japan’s board members decided to raise the interest rate by 10 basis points, from -0.1% to 0%, for the first time since 2007, ending the period of negative interest rates that began in 2016.
Currently, Japan’s benchmark interest rate stands at 1.25% and is expected to remain unchanged. If the rate is lowered, the yen may weaken, while the Japanese stock market could rise. In any case, heightened volatility in the yen and across Asian financial markets is anticipated during this period.
If the BoJ hints at further rate hikes, the yen will receive significant support.
The commentary and accompanying statement will reflect the views of the bank’s board members regarding the adopted decision and the outlook for monetary policy.
06:30 – JPY: Bank of Japan Press Conference
During the press conference, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will comment on the bank’s monetary policy and interest rate decision. Markets usually react noticeably to speeches by the BoJ governor. If he touches on monetary policy during his speech, volatility will rise not only in the yen but also across Asian and global financial markets.
07:00 – EUR: German GDP for Q3 (Preliminary Estimate)
GDP is one of the key indicators (along with labor market and inflation data) for a country’s central bank in formulating monetary policy. A strong result boosts the euro, while a weak GDP report negatively affects the currency. In Q2 2026, GDP posted +0.3% (+1.0% YoY) after +0.3% (+0.5% YoY) in Q1, +0.2% (+0.6% YoY) in Q4 2025, 0% (+0.3% YoY) in Q3, -0.2% (-0.2% YoY) in Q2 2025, +0.4% (-0.2% YoY) in Q1 2025.
If GDP decreases in Q3 2026, the euro will face pressure. Conversely, positive GDP data will support the currency.
10:00 – EUR: Eurozone GDP for Q3 (First Estimate)
GDP is considered to be an indicator of the overall economic health. A rising trend of the GDP indicator is positive for the euro, while a low reading weakens the currency.
Previous values: +0.6% (+1.2% YoY) in Q2, -0.2% (+0.3% YoY) in Q1 2026, +0.2% (+1.2% YoY) in Q4 2025, +0.3% (+1.4% YoY) in Q3, +0.1% (+1.6% YoY) in Q2, +0.6% (+1.6% YoY) in Q1 2025, +0.4% (+1.3% YoY) in Q4 2024, +0.4% (+1.0% YoY) in Q3, +0.2% (+0.6% YoY) in Q2, and +0.3% (+0.6% YoY) in Q1 2024.
If the data is below the forecast and/or previous values, the euro may decline. Conversely, readings exceeding the predicted values may strengthen the euro in the short term. However, the European economy is still far from fully recovering to pre-crisis levels.
13:00 – EUR: German Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (Preliminary Estimate)
The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is published by the European Statistics Office and is calculated using a methodology agreed upon by all EU countries. The HICP is an indicator for measuring inflation and is used by the European Central Bank to assess price stability. A positive index result strengthens the euro, while a negative one weakens it.
Previous values: +3.3%, +2.9%, +2.8%, +2.3%, +2.6%, +2.9%, +2.7%, +1.9%, +2.1% in January 2026.
The data indicate that inflation remains high and even accelerates periodically, which, in turn, is forcing the ECB to tighten its monetary policy, especially given the risks of recession in the Eurozone.
If the index value turns out to be lower than the previous one, the euro may weaken. Conversely, if inflation resumes rising, the euro may strengthen. An increase in the index is a positive factor for the euro.
If the October reading proves higher than the previous one, the euro may appreciate in the short term.
Saturday, October 31
01:30 – CNY: China’s Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP)
This indicator is an essential gauge of the overall Chinese economy. An indicator reading above 50 is positive for the yuan, while a value below 50 is negative for the currency.
Previous values: 50.1, 49.8, 49.2, 50.3, 50.0, 50.3, 50.4, 49.0, 49.3 in January 2026, 50.1 in December 2025, 49.2, 49.0, 49.8, 49.4, 49.7, 49.5, 50.5, 50.2, 49.1 in January 2025, 50.1 (December 2024), 50.3, 50.1, 49.8, 49.1, 49.4, 49.5, 50.4, 50.8, 49.2, 49.0, 49.5, 50.2, 49.3, 49.0, 48.8, 49.2, 51.9, 52.6, 50.1 in January. The relative rise in the index above 50 strengthens the yuan. Data above 50 indicates increased economic activity, positively affecting the national currency. Conversely, if the index value is below 50, the yuan will face pressure and probably decline.
Likewise, the non-manufacturing PMI assesses business conditions in China’s services and construction sectors. An indicator result above 50 is seen as positive for the yuan. Previous values: 50.2, 49.0, 49.0, 50.2, 50.1, 49.4, 50.1, 49.5, 49.4 in January 2026, 50.2 in December 2025, 49.5, 50.1, 50.0, 50.3, 50.5, 50.3, 50.8, 50.4, 50.2 in January 2025, 52.2 in December 2024, 50.0, 50.2, 50.0, 50.3, 50.2, 50.5, 51.2, 53.0, 50.7, 50.4, 50.6, 51.7, 51.5, 53.2, 54.5, 56.4, 58.2, 56.3, 54.4 in January. The indicator is still above the 50 value, likely influencing the yuan positively. Conversely, an indicator reading below 50 suggests that the yuan will face pressure and probably decline.
Price chart of USDX in real time mode
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