The US election results have prompted investors to take a fresh look at America’s AI sector, unleashing sharp moves in both directions across markets. Expectations for the Fed’s policy path, however, have barely shifted, helping the US dollar hold its ground. Investors will be combing through the minutes of the Fed’s October meeting this Wednesday as they fine-tune their trading strategies.
Market participants will also be watching developments in the Middle East and key economic data releases from China, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, the UK, and the US over the coming week (16.11.2026–22.11.2026).
Note: During the coming week, new events may be added to the calendar, and/or some scheduled events may be canceled. GMT time.
The article covers the following subjects:
Major Takeaways
- Monday: China’s industrial production and retail sales data, Canadian CPI figures.
- Tuesday: Speech by the RBA governor, minutes of the RBA’s latest meeting, the RBNZ’s inflation expectations survey, UK labor market data, US retail sales data.
- Wednesday: UK CPI data, minutes of the Fed’s latest meeting.
- Thursday: Australian labor market data.
- Friday: UK retail sales data.
- Sunday: New Zealand retail sales data.
- Key event of the week: Minutes of the Fed’s October meeting.
Monday, November 16
02:00 – CNY: Industrial Production. Retail Sales
The National Bureau of Statistics of China’s report on industrial production shows the output of Chinese industrial enterprises, such as factories and manufacturing facilities. An increase in industrial production is a positive factor for the yuan, indirectly signaling the possibility of accelerating inflation, which may force the People’s Bank of China to tighten monetary policy.
Conversely, the decline in the indicator value may negatively impact the yuan.
Previous values YoY: +5.5%, +5.2%, +4.5%, +5.3%, +4.5%, +6.3%, +6.5%, +5.2%, +5.7%, +6.8%, 5.8%, +6.1%, +7.7%, +5.9%, +6.2% in December 2024.
The retail sales index, published monthly by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, gauges the change in the aggregate value of sales at the retail level across the country. The index is often viewed as an indicator of consumer confidence and economic prosperity and reflects the state of the retail sector in the near term. An increase in the index value is usually positive for the yuan, while a decrease in the index value will affect it negatively. Previous YoY values: +1.1%, +0.4%, +0.6%, +1.0%, -0.6%, +2.8%, +0.9%, +1.3%, +2.9%, +3.0%, +3.4%, +3.7%, +4.8%, +6.4%, +5.1%, +5.9%, +4.0%, +3.7% in December 2024.
Despite the slowdown in the previous month, the data indicate an ongoing recovery in this sector of the Chinese economy following the sharp decline in February–March 2020, albeit at a slower pace. If the data prove weaker than the forecasted or previous values, the yuan may experience a decline, potentially a sharp one.
China is a major buyer of commodities and a supplier of a wide range of finished goods to the global commodity market. Since China’s economy is the second largest in the world, the release of its significant macroeconomic indicators can profoundly influence the overall financial market.
Besides, China is the largest trading partner of Australia and New Zealand, purchasing a significant amount of commodities from these countries.
Therefore, positive macro statistics from China may also exert a positive influence on these commodity currencies. Conversely, if the anticipated data indicates a deceleration in one of the world’s largest economies, it would be a detrimental factor for global stock markets and commodity currencies.
13:30 – CAD: Canada’s Consumer Price Index
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) reflects the retail price trends of a selected basket of goods and services. Meanwhile, the Core CPI excludes fruits, vegetables, gasoline, fuel oil, natural gas, mortgage interest, intercity transportation, and tobacco products. The inflation target for the Bank of Canada ranges between 1% and 3%. A higher CPI reading is a sign of a rate hike and is positive for the Canadian dollar.
Previous values:
- CPI: +0.1% (+3.1% YoY), -0.1% (+3.0% YoY), +0.5% (+3.0% YoY), -0.4% (+2.8% YoY), +1.0% (+3.2% YoY), +0.4% (+2.8% YoY), +0.9% (+2.4% YoY), +0.5% (+1.8% YoY), 0% (+2.3% YoY) in January 2026, +0.1% (+2.4% YoY), +0.2% (+2.2% YoY), +0.1% (+2.4% YoY), -0.1% (+1.9% YoY), +0.3% (+1.7% YoY), +0.1% (+1.9% YoY), +0.6% (+1.7% YoY), -0.1% (+1.7% YoY) in April, +0.3% (+2.3% YoY) in March, +1.1% (+2.6% YoY) in February, +0.1% (+1.9% YoY) in January 2025, -0.4% (+1.8% YoY) in December 2024.
- Core CPI released by the Bank of Canada: 0% (+2.2% YoY), +0.1% (+2.4% YoY), +0.2% (+2.3% YoY), +0.1% (+2.1% YoY), +0.6% (+2.2% YoY), +0.2% (+2.1% YoY), +0.2% (+2.5% YoY), +0.4% (+2.3% YoY), +0.2% (+2.6% YoY) in January 2026, +0.2% (+2.9% YoY), +0.6% (+2.9% YoY), +0.3% (+2.8% YoY), 0% (+2.6% YoY), +0.1% (+2.6% YoY), +0.1% (+2.7% YoY), +0.6% (+2.5% YoY), +0.5% (+2.5% YoY) in April, -0.2% (+2.2% YoY) in March, +0.7% (+2.7% YoY) in February, +0.4% (+2.1% YoY) in January 2025, +0.3% (+1.8% YoY) in December 2024.
The data suggest that moderate inflationary pressures persist, which will likely prompt the Bank of Canada to maintain a pause for now. If the expected data is worse than the previous values, it will negatively affect the Canadian dollar, but if the data exceeds the previous values, it will bolster the currency.
Tuesday, November 17
00:00 – AUD: Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock’s Speech
Michele Bullock will assess the current state of Australia’s economy and outline her department’s monetary policy. Market participants anticipate her insights on the central bank’s policies amid global recessionary trends, rising energy prices caused by the military conflict in the Middle East, and elevated inflation levels in Australia.
Any signals regarding her plans to adjust the RBA’s monetary policy parameters will cause a sharp surge in the Australian currency and stock market volatility. If the Australian Central Bank Governor avoids discussing monetary policy, the market response will be muted.
00:30 – AUD: Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes
The document is published two weeks after the meeting and the interest rate decision. If the RBA is optimistic about the country’s labor market and GDP growth rate and is hawkish on the inflation outlook, the rate may be increased at the next meeting, which is favorable for the Australian dollar. The bank’s dovish rhetoric on inflation, in particular, is putting pressure on the Australian dollar.
In early November 2026, the RBA raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.85%, in line with expectations, taking it to its highest level since 2008. The move came in response to an inflation surge fueled by a global oil shock stemming from the war in the Middle East.
RBA Governor Michele Bullock struck a cautious tone, suggesting that a pause would allow the central bank to assess incoming data. She also expressed uncertainty about the direction of the next rate move and stressed that monetary policy takes time to work through the economy.
If the released minutes contain unexpected information regarding the RBA’s monetary policy issues, the volatility in the Australian dollar will increase.
02:00 – NZD: Inflation Expectations of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand for Q4
The indicator measures consumers’ expectations regarding annual inflation over the next 24 months. An increase in these expectations can significantly influence the likelihood of an interest rate hike. A high indicator value is a positive factor for the New Zealand dollar.
Previous values QoQ: +2.34% in Q3, +2.53% in Q2, +2.37% in Q1 2026, +2.28% in Q4 2025, +2.28% in Q3 2025, +2.29% in Q2 2025, +2.06% in Q1 2025, +2.12% in Q4 2024, +2.03%, +2.33%, +2.50% in Q1 2024, +2.76%, +2.83%, +2.79%, +3.3%, +3.62% in Q4 2022.
07:00 – GBP: Average Weekly Earnings Over the Last Three Months. Unemployment Rate
The UK Office for National Statistics publishes a report on average weekly earnings covering the period for the last three months, including and excluding bonuses.
This report is a key short-term indicator of changes in the average earnings of employees in the UK. An increase in wages is positive for the British pound, whereas a low indicator value is unfavorable. Forecast: The November report suggests that average earnings, including bonuses, rose again over the last three months (July–September) after gaining +3.7%, +3.9%, +4.1%, +4.4%, +4.4%, +4.4%, +3.9%, +4.1% in January 2026, and +4.2% in December 2025. Average earnings excluding bonuses increased after posting +3.7%, +3.5%, +3.5%, +3.4%, +3.4%, +3.4%, +3.6%, and +3.8% in January 2026, and +4.1% in December 2025.
These figures show continued growth in employee earnings levels, which is favorable for the pound. If the figures turn out to be better than the forecast and/or previous values, the currency will likely strengthen. If the data falls short of expectations, the pound will likely weaken.
The UK unemployment data will be released at the same time. Unemployment is expected to stand at 4.7% over the last three months (July–September), after 4.9%, 4.9%, 4.9%, 4.9%, 4.9%, 5.0%, 4.9%, and 5.2% in January 2026 and December 2025.
Since 2012, the UK unemployment rate has fallen steadily from 8.0% in September 2012. The unemployment decline is a positive factor for the pound, while its growth negatively impacts the currency.
If the UK labor market data appears to be worse than the forecast and/or the previous value, the pound will be under pressure.
Regardless, when the UK labor market data is released, the pound and the London Stock Exchange are expected to experience increased volatility.
13:30 – USD: US Retail Sales. Retail Sales Control Group
This Census Bureau report on retail sales reflects the total sales of US retailers of all sizes and types. The change in retail sales is a key indicator of consumer spending. The report is a leading indicator, and the data may be subject to significant revisions in the future. High indicator readings strengthen the US dollar, while low readings weaken it. A relative decline in the indicator may have a short-term negative impact on the US dollar, while a rise in the indicator will positively impact the currency.
In September 2026, the value stood at +0.8% after +1.2%, -0.5%, +0.2%, +1.0%, +0.4%, +1.6%, +0.7%, 0%, 0% in December 2025, +0.5% in November, -0.2% in October, +0.1% in September, +0.5% in August, +0.6% in July, +1.0%, -0.8%, -0.2%, +1.7%, 0%, -0.8% in January 2025.
Retail sales are the main indicator of consumer spending in the United States, showing the change in the retail industry.
Retail sales serve as an indicator of domestic consumption, contributing the most to the US GDP and being one of the main factors influencing inflation. Deterioration of the indicator values is a negative factor for the US dollar. Inflation deceleration may prompt the Fed to begin the process of monetary policy easing.
The Retail Control Group indicator gauges volume in the retail industry and is used to calculate price indexes for most goods. High readings strengthen the US dollar, while low readings weaken the currency. A slight increase in the figures is unlikely to boost the dollar. If the data is lower than the previous readings, the dollar may be negatively impacted in the short term. Previous values: +0.1%, +1.4%, -0.4%, +0.4%, +0.8%, +0.5%, +0.8%, +0.6%, +0.5%, 0%, +0.2%, +0.5%, -0.2%, +0.7%, +0.5%, +0.9%, +0.3%, 0%, +0.2%, +1.3%, -0.9% in January 2025.
Wednesday, November 18
07:00 – GBP: UK Consumer Price Index. Core Consumer Price Index
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the retail prices of a group of goods and services comprising the UK consumer basket. The CPI is a key indicator of inflation. The British pound’s movement on the currency market and the London Stock Exchange FTSE 100 index performance depend on the release of the CPI data.
In September, the UK consumer inflation posted +0.4% (+3.5% YoY) after +0.5% (+3.1% YoY) in August, +0.3% (+2.6% YoY) in July, +0.1% (+2.6% YoY) in June, +0.2% (+2.8% YoY) in May, +0.7% (+2.8%) in April, +0.7% (+3.3% YoY) in March, +0.4% (+3.0% YoY) in February, -0.5% (+3.0% YoY) in January 2026, +0.4% (+3.4% YoY) in December 2025, -0.2% (+3.2% YoY) in November, +0.4% (+3.6% YoY) in October, 0% (+3.8% YoY) in September, +0.3% (+3.8% YoY) in August, +0.1% (+3.8% YoY) in July, +0.3% (+3.6% YoY) in June, +0.2% (+3.4% YoY) in May, +0.3% (+2.6% YoY) in March, +0.4% (+2.8% YoY) in February, +3.0% YoY in January 2025.
The data suggests persistent inflationary pressures in the UK, which are expected to bolster the British pound, particularly if the actual data surpasses the forecasted values.
An indicator reading below the forecast/previous value may cause the weakening of the British pound since low inflation will force the Bank of England to stick to the loose monetary policy course.
The Core CPI, published by the Office for National Statistics, measures the price change in a selected basket of goods and services (excluding food and energy) over a given period. It is a key indicator for assessing inflation and changes in consumer preferences. A positive result strengthens the British pound, while a negative outcome weakens it.
In September 2026, the core CPI posted +2.8% YoY after +2.6% in August, July, June, and May, +2.5% in April, +3.1% in March, +3.2% in February, +3.1% in January 2026, +3.2% in December and November, +3.4% in October 3.5% in September, 3.6% in August, 3.8% in July, +3.7% in June, +3.5% in May, +3.8% in April, +3.4% in March, +3.5% in February, +3.7% in January 2025. The publication will likely positively impact the British pound in the short term if it exceeds the forecast and previous values. A reading below the forecast and/or previous values may weaken the pound.
19:00 – USD: Federal Open Market Committee Meeting Minutes
The FOMC minutes release is extremely important for determining the course of the Fed’s current policy and the prospects for US interest rate hikes. Volatility in financial markets usually increases during the minutes’ publication, as they often reveal changes or provide clarifications from the latest FOMC meeting.
The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at its first meeting of 2026. In September, it raised its target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, marking its first rate hike in three years. Fed Chair Warsh said inflation remained too high, while the dot plot indicated that 12 of the 18 FOMC participants expected another hike by year-end.
At its October meeting, the Fed kept the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.75%–4.00%, in line with market expectations.
Markets are pricing in a 75–85% chance of a rate hike at the Fed’s December meeting. Investors will scrutinize the minutes for clues about the likelihood of such a move. A dovish tone could lift stock indices and weigh on the US dollar, while hawkish signals about the policy outlook could strengthen the currency.
Thursday, November 19
00:30 – AUD: Employment Change. Unemployment Rate
The employment rate reflects the monthly change in the number of employed Australian citizens. An increase in the indicator value positively impacts consumer spending, stimulating economic growth. A high reading is positive for the Australian dollar, while a low reading is negative. Previous indicator values: -39,300 in September, +39,500 in August, -15,900 in July, +80,200 in June, +38,200 in May, -34,900 in April, +20,000 in March, +22,100 in February, +36,100 in January 2026, +57,300 in December 2025.
Besides, the Australian Bureau of Statistics will publish a report on the unemployment rate. It is an indicator that estimates the ratio of the share of the unemployed population to the total number of working-age citizens. The rise in the indicator readings demonstrates the weakening of the labor market, negatively impacting the national economy. A decrease in the indicator is positive for the Australian dollar.
Forecast: Unemployment in Australia remained at low levels in October 2026 and stood at 4.7% against 4.7% in September, 4.6% in August, 4.5% in July, 4.4% in June and May, 4.5% in April, 4.3% in March and February, and 4.1% in January 2026 and December 2025, while the employment rate has risen.
The Reserve Bank of Australia has repeatedly stated that the Australian economy and the central bank’s plans are influenced by key indicators like the level of household debt and spending, wage growth, and the state of the labor market, in addition to the international trade situation. If the indicator readings are lower than expected, the Australian dollar may decline significantly in the short term, while higher data will strengthen the currency.
Friday, November 20
07:00 – GBP: UK Retail Sales
The retail sales economic indicator is a key metric that tracks the level of consumer demand and significantly impacts market performance and the national currency. Additionally, it serves as an indirect indicator of inflation, making it a key concern for a country’s central bank and market participants.
The retail sales report is released by the UK Office for National Statistics. The Retail Sales change is considered to indicate the consumer spending level. High indicator values are positive for the British pound, while low readings are negative.
Previous YoY values: +0.8%, +2.4%, +1.2%, +3.8%, +3.5%, +0.1%, +1.4%, +1.6%, +4.6% (in January 2026), +1.6% (in December 2025).
Sunday, November 22
21:45 – NZD: New Zealand’s Retail Sales in Q3
The retail sales data is published by Statistics New Zealand. Change in retail sales volume is usually considered an indicator of consumer spending. Strong retail sales are generally positive for the New Zealand dollar, while weak figures weigh on the currency. In Q2 2026, the retail sales volume indicator showed -0.5%, after +0.9% in Q1 2026 and Q4 2025, +1.9% in Q3, +0.7% in Q2, and +0.8% in Q1 2025, +1.0% in Q4 2024, 0% in Q3, -1.2% in Q2 2024, and +0.5% in Q1 2024. The decline in retail sales is bearish for the New Zealand dollar.
The New Zealand dollar may strengthen if data exceeds the forecast or previous values, while a weak report will adversely affect the currency.
Price chart of USDX in real time mode
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