During the upcoming trading week of July 6–July 12, 2026, market participants will focus on the release of key macroeconomic data from China, Germany, the Eurozone, the US, and Canada, as well as the outcome of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s meeting. Particular attention will be paid to Wednesday’s release of the minutes from the Fed’s June meeting, and market participants will be looking for additional signals and clarity regarding the outlook for the US central bank’s monetary policy.
Note: During the coming week, new events may be added to the calendar, and/or some scheduled events may be canceled. GMT time.
The article covers the following subjects:
Major Takeaways
- Monday: Eurozone retail sales, US ISM Services PMI.
- Tuesday: None scheduled.
- Wednesday: RBNZ interest rate decision, minutes from the Fed’s June meeting.
- Thursday: China CPI.
- Friday: Germany CPI, Canadian labor market data for June.
- Key event of the week: June FOMC Meeting Minutes.
Monday, July 6
09:00 – EUR: Eurozone Retail Sales
Retail sales data is the main measure of consumer spending, indicating the change in sales volume. A high indicator result strengthens the euro, while a low one weakens it. Better-than-expected data is also likely to boost the euro.
Previous figures: -0.4% (+1.0% YoY), -0.1% (+1.2% YoY), -0.2% (+1.7% YoY), -0.1% (+2.0% YoY) in January 2026, +0.2% (+1.8%YoY) in December 2025, 0% (+2.6% YoY), +0.4% (+2.1% YoY), +0.3% (+1.4% YoY), -0.1% (+1.8%YoY), -0.1% (+2.7% YoY), +0.5% (+3.8% YoY), -0.2% (+2.3%YoY), +0.5% (+3.0% YoY), -0.2% (+2.3% YoY) in January 2025.
14:00 – USD: US ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index
The PMI assesses the state of the US services sector, accounting for about 80% of US GDP. The share of final goods production is about 20% of GDP, including 1% for agriculture and 18% for industrial production. Therefore, the publication of the services sector data significantly impacts the US dollar. An indicator reading above 50 is positive for the currency.
Previous readings: 54.5 in May, 53.6 in April, 54.0 in March, 56.1 in February, 53.8 in January 2026 and December 2025, 52.4 in November, 52.0 in October, 50.3 in September, 51.9 in August, 50.5 in July, 50.8 in June, 50.2 in May, 51.6 in April, 50.8 in March, 53.2 in February, 52.8 in January 2025.
The growth of index values will favorably affect the US dollar. However, a relative decline in the index values and readings below 50 may negatively affect the US dollar in the short term.
Tuesday, July 7
There are no important macroeconomic statistics scheduled for release.
Wednesday, July 8
02:00 – NZD: Reserve Bank of Australia’s Interest Rate Decision. RBA Accompanying Statement
The RBNZ stated the economy no longer needed the existing level of monetary stimulus before its officials finally shifted to an easing stance in August 2024, lowering the official cash rate by 0.25% to 5.25%. Up until that point, the RBNZ had maintained a pause for eight consecutive meetings. In October and November, the rate was cut again, by 0.50% each time. In 2025, the RBNZ continued its easing cycle, bringing the interest rate to 2.25%, where it stands today.
After the RBNZ announced its decision to cut the interest rate, the New Zealand dollar came under heavy pressure. The accompanying statement noted that this decision was made amid expectations of a further decline in inflation, which is gradually returning to the target range of 1.0%–3.0%. Inflation expectations have also declined.
However, the situation in the global economy—and, in particular, the New Zealand economy—has changed dramatically due to the war in the Middle East. A sharp rise in oil and gas prices in countries heavily dependent on energy imports has accelerated inflation. Therefore, it cannot be ruled out that at this meeting, RBNZ officials may decide to raise the interest rate. However, a pause in which current monetary policy parameters are maintained also remains a possibility.
Market participants monitoring NZD quotes should be prepared for a sharp increase in volatility during this period.
In its monetary policy statement and accompanying remarks, the RBNZ leadership will explain the interest rate decision and comment on the economic conditions that led to it.
18:00 – USD: Federal Open Market Committee Meeting Minutes
The FOMC minutes release is extremely important for determining the course of the Fed’s current policy and the prospects for US interest rate hikes. Volatility in financial markets usually increases during the minutes’ publication, as they often reveal changes or provide clarifications from the latest FOMC meeting.
At its first meeting of 2026, the US Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged. Following the June meeting, the rate was once again left unchanged, and new Chairman Kevin Warsh, presiding over his first meeting, reaffirmed his commitment to price stability. However, the dot plot changed dramatically. The median forecast for the year-end rate rose to 3.8%, implying a single 25-basis-point hike by the end of 2026. Policymakers removed prior phrasing that had suggested a willingness to cut rates if needed from the accompanying statement. The market now estimates the probability of a rate hike by the end of the year at approximately 80%.
Market participants will seek clarity from the published minutes. In any case, a dovish tone will have a positive impact on stock indices while negatively affecting the US dollar. A hawkish tone from Fed officials regarding the outlook for monetary policy could push the dollar higher.
Thursday, July 9
01:30 – CNY: China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI)
The National Bureau of Statistics of China will release its fresh monthly data on consumer prices. The growth of consumer prices may trigger the acceleration of inflation, prompting the People’s Bank of China to implement a tighter monetary policy. Higher consumer inflation may boost the yuan, while a low result may exert pressure on the currency.
Since China is the world’s second-largest economy, the publication of its significant macroeconomic data has a notable impact on the global financial markets. This influence extends particularly to the yuan, other Asian currencies, the US dollar, and commodity currencies. Moreover, China serves as the largest buyer of commodities and supplier of a wide range of finished goods to the global commodity market.
In May 2026, the consumer inflation index value stood at -0.1% (+1.2% YoY) after +0.3% (+1.2%) in April, -0.7% (+1.0% YoY) in March, +1.0% (+1.3% YoY) in February, +0.2% (+0.2% YoY) in January 2026, +0.2% (+0.8% YoY) in December 2025, -0.1% (+0.7%) in November, +0.2% (+0.2% YoY) in October, +0.1% (-0.3% YoY) in September, 0% (-0.4% YoY) in August, +0.4% (0% YoY) in July, +0.1% (+0.1% YoY) in June, -0.2% (-0.1% YoY) in May, +0.1% (-0.1% YoY) in April, -0.2% (-0.7% YoY) in February, +0.7% (+0.5% YoY) in January 2025.
An increase in the consumer inflation index will positively affect the renminbi, as well as commodity currencies. Conversely, if the data is worse than forecasted and there is a relative decline in the CPI, it may adversely affect the currencies, particularly the Australian and New Zealand dollars, as China is the largest trading and economic partner of Australia and New Zealand.
Friday, July 10
06:00 – EUR: German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (Final Estimate)
The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is published by the European Statistics Office and is calculated using a methodology agreed upon by all EU countries. The HICP is an indicator for measuring inflation and is used by the European Central Bank to assess price stability. A positive index result strengthens the euro, while a negative one weakens it.
Previous values: +2.7%, +2.9%, +2.8%, +2.0%, +2.1% in January 2026, +2.0%, +2.6%, +2.3%, +2.4%, +2.1%, +1.8%, +2.0%, +2.1%, +2.2%, +2.3%, +2.6%, +2.8% in January 2025.
The data indicate that inflation remains high and even accelerates periodically, which, in turn, is forcing the ECB to tighten its monetary policy, especially given the risks of recession in the Eurozone.
If the index value turns out to be lower than the previous one, the euro may weaken. Conversely, if inflation resumes rising, the euro may strengthen. An increase in the index is a positive factor for the euro.
If the June reading proves higher than the previous one, the euro may appreciate in the short term.
12:30 – CAD: Canada’s Unemployment Rate
Statistics Canada will release the country’s May labor market data. Massive business closures due to the coronavirus and layoffs have also contributed to the unemployment rate, increasing from the usual 5.6–5.7% to 7.8% in March and 13.7% in May 2020.
In May 2026, unemployment stood at 6.6% against 6.9% in April, 6.7% in March, February, 6.5% in January 2026, 6.8% in December, 6.5% in November, 6.9% in October, 7.1% September and August, 6.9% in July and June, 7.0% in May, 6.9% in April, 6.6% in February and January 2025, 6.7% in December 2024, 6.8% in November, 6.5% in October and September, 6.6% in August, 6.4% in July and June, 6.2% in May, 6.1% in April and March, 5.8% in February, 5.7% in January 2024, 5.8% in December and November 2023, 5.7% in October, 5.5% in September, August, and July, 5.4% in June, 5.2% in May, 5.0% in April, March, February, January, December, 5.1% in November, 5.2% in October and September, 5.4% in August, 4.9% in July and June, 5.1% in May, 5.2% in April, 5.3% in March, 5.5% in February, 6.5% in January 2022.
If the unemployment rate continues to rise, the Canadian dollar will depreciate. If the data exceeds the previous value, the Canadian dollar will strengthen. A decrease in the unemployment rate is a positive factor for the Canadian dollar, while an increase is a negative factor.
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