The U.S. Treasury’s push to cap borrowing costs looked less convincing on Thursday, as a bond rally faded, the S&P 500 slid, and Walmart’s earnings miss added fresh worry about the U.S. consumer. Oil climbed back toward $88 on renewed Iran tension, gold held its ground, and bitcoin pushed above $72,000, while the dollar finished mixed but arguably firmer against the majors on net.

Check out the forex news and economic updates you may have missed in the latest trading session!

News Headlines & Data:

• Canada PPI for July 2026: 12.4% y/y (12.0% y/y forecast; 12.4% y/y previous); 0.6% m/m (0.2% m/m forecast; -1.4% m/m previous)
• Japan Balance of Trade for July 2026: -634.5B (-500.0B forecast; -406.9B previous)
• Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations for August 2026: 4.9% (4.4% forecast; 4.7% previous)
• Australia Employment Change for July 2026: -15.8k (15.0k forecast; 76.3k previous)
• Swiss Balance of Trade for July 2026: 8.1B (4.1B forecast; 3.8B previous)
• Germany PPI Growth Rate for July 2026: 3.0% (2.4% forecast; 1.8% previous)
• Euro area Labour Cost Index Flash for Q2 2026: 3.0% y/y (3.0% y/y forecast; 3.2% y/y previous)
• U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Orders for August 2026: -25.0 (-42.0 forecast; -45.0 previous)
• Canada New Housing Price Index for July 2026: -0.1% m/m (0.1% m/m forecast; -0.1% m/m previous)
• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for August 15, 2026: 206.0k (201.0k forecast; 209.0k previous)
• U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for August 2026: 47.4 (25.0 forecast; 41.4 previous)
• CB U.S. Leading Index for July 2026: 0.2% m/m (0.1% m/m forecast; -0.2% m/m previous)
• Fed Daly said Fed policy is currently in a good place and that she sees no urgent case for a preemptive rate move. She also said it was too early to assess how the Treasury’s changing debt-issuance strategy might affect the Fed’s operations, emphasizing the priority of returning inflation to 2%

Broad Market Price Action:

Dollar Index, Gold, Oil, S&P 500, U.S. 10-yr Yield, Bitcoin Overlay – Chart Faster With TradingView

Thursday turned on a single question: whether the Treasury’s plan to hold down borrowing costs would actually stick. It didn’t look that way. A bond rally faded, long-end yields climbed back, and stocks slid as higher energy prices revived inflation worries. Bessent played down the moves, calling anything inside a 24-hour window “noise,” but the price action across assets told a more cautious story into the close.

The S&P 500 spent the overnight hours near 7,720 before rolling over through the London morning and dropping hard after the U.S. open, sliding toward 7,670 and grinding lower through the afternoon to close near 7,646, down roughly 0.87% on the day. Walmart did much of the damage, sinking about 9.7% after its weakest U.S. comparable-sales growth in more than six years and a soft profit outlook stoked fresh concern about the consumer. The retailer’s miss, layered on top of climbing yields, kept risk appetite on the back foot even as bitcoin ripped higher elsewhere.

Oil ground higher for much of the session. WTI traded near $85.30 through Asia before pushing up to a high near $88.59 around the U.S. open, then easing back to settle near $87.44, up around 2.55% on the day. President Trump’s threat to crush the Iranian economy clouded any near-term de-escalation, and unconfirmed reports of a vessel on fire in the Strait of Hormuz kept a bid under crude even as the U.S.-run shipping corridor through the strait’s southern channel reportedly kept oil flowing.

Treasury yields climbed as the buyback-driven rally unwound. The U.S. 10-year traded near 4.64% overnight before rising through the London and U.S. sessions to close near 4.695%, up roughly 1.12% on the day, with 30-year yields moving higher alongside. Traders showed reservations about the Treasury’s intervention, and the bounce in yields undercut the “Bessent put” narrative just as oil-driven inflation expectations pushed higher.

Gold chopped through a wide range and finished little changed. The metal traded near $4,520 overnight, dipped toward $4,451 into the U.S. open, then spiked to a high near $4,541 before settling near $4,527, up around 0.09% on the day. Rising yields worked against bullion, but the softer dollar earlier in the session and the unresolved Iran risk offered enough support to keep it roughly flat.

Bitcoin was the day’s standout, riding the return of risk appetite in crypto even as equities struggled. It held near $69,300 overnight before rocketing higher from the London morning, clearing $72,000 and grinding to a close near $72,669, up around 4.26% on the day and its highest level in months. The move ran counter to the caution across stocks and bonds, and it likely drew added weight from the ongoing policy tailwind around U.S. digital-asset legislation.

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FX Market Behavior: U.S. Dollar vs. Majors

Overlay of USD vs. Major Currencies – Chart Faster With TradingView

The Dollar Index finished slightly higher, near the 98.88 area, up around 0.09% on the day. The headline barely moved, but it masked a choppy session that saw the greenback swing lower into the London morning before recovering its footing and grinding back up into the close.

From the Thursday Asia open, the dollar traded mixed and arguably net-neutral to slightly firmer heading into the London open. Treasury yields had steadied after the prior day’s buyback-driven slide, offering the greenback some support, while a broad rally across Asian equities and a weaker PBOC yuan fixing set the tone. The move was two-sided rather than directional, with no single release forcing the pace.

After the London session opened, the dollar slipped against the majors on net before quickly rebounding ahead of the U.S. open. Yields bounced back through the European morning, which helped the greenback recover poise after leaking to earlier lows. Germany’s PPI came in hotter than forecast at 3.0%, and euro area labour costs held at 3.0% for the quarter, though neither print gave the dollar a decisive push in either direction.

After the U.S. session opened, the dollar traded mixed but arguably net bearish, then found footing after the London close and rebounded against the majors into the end of the day. Initial jobless claims came in near forecast at 206k, while the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index blew past expectations at 47.4 against a 25.0 forecast, a strong regional factory reading that likely reinforced the case for the Fed to stay put.

With yields climbing and Walmart’s miss weighing on risk, the dollar leaned firmer into the close. At the close, the dollar was mixed against the majors but arguably net bullish overall, an outcome that fit a day of rebounding yields and a broad pullback in risk appetite rather than any single rival currency’s weakness.

Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar

• New Zealand Balance of Trade for July 2026 at 10:45 pm GMT
• Australia S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash for August 2026 at 11:00 pm GMT
• U.K. GfK Consumer Confidence for August 2026 at 11:01 pm GMT
• Japan CPI Growth Rate for July 2026 at 11:30 pm GMT
• Japan S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash for August 2026 at 12:30 am GMT
• New Zealand Credit Card Spending for July 2026 at 3:00 am GMT
• U.K. Retail Sales for July 2026 at 6:00 am GMT
• Germany S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash for August 2026 at 7:30 am GMT
• Euro area S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash for August 2026 at 8:00 am GMT
• ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations for July 2026
• U.K. S&P Global Services PMI Flash for August 2026 at 8:30 am GMT
• U.K. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash for August 2026 at 8:30 am GMT
• Euro area Negotiated Wage Growth for June 30, 2026
• Canada CFIB Business Barometer for August 2026 at 11:00 am GMT
• Canada Retail Sales for June 2026 at 12:30 pm GMT
• U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash for August 2026 at 1:45 pm GMT
• Euro area Consumer Confidence Flash for August 2026 at 2:00 pm GMT

Friday’s session likely hinges on whether the bounce in long-end yields holds and whether the Treasury’s intervention keeps losing credibility, a question that could keep steering the dollar and risk assets after Thursday’s cautious turn.

A dense run of global PMI flashes could add cross currents, with the euro area, U.K., and U.S. surveys offering fresh reads on growth momentum, while Japan’s CPI and U.K. retail sales give early signals on two of the majors. The unresolved Hormuz situation and elevated oil prices remain a live risk under all of it.

Stay frosty out there, forex friends!

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