The EURUSD has pushed to a fresh session high of 1.1427, breaking above its 200-hour moving average at 1.14236. The move higher comes after buyers successfully defended the 100-hour moving average earlier in the day, helping keep the bullish bias intact following last Thursday’s and Friday’s rallies.
Those gains late last week did fade into the close, raising the question of whether today’s advance will suffer the same fate or if buyers can finally build on the upside momentum.
For the bulls, the key near-term level is 1.14114, a swing area low that dates back to March 13. Holding above that level should keep buyers firmly in control and open the door for a move toward the next resistance zone between 1.1442 and 1.14587. Beyond that, the 50% retracement of the decline from the June 15 high comes in at 1.1472 and represents the next major upside target.
From a broader perspective, the EURUSD has been trending lower since peaking at 1.18476 on April 17. The pair eventually fell to last week’s low of 1.13238, a decline of nearly 525 pips over 48 trading days. However, from the June 15 high, the pair moved down nearly 300 pips in just seven to eight trading days.
As a result, is it time to start a larger corrective rally?
The answer will hinge on two key levels: the 200-hour moving average at 1.14236 and the swing level at 1.14114 (old low from March 13). Staying above those levels would signal that buyers remain in control and could pave the way for further gains. A move back below them would suggest the latest breakout has failed and that sellers are once again regaining control.
