Without serious bid, S&P 500 flushed Friday after great AVGO earnings (that were summarily dumped) – when it could have done so the day before following less than stellar ORCL earnings after Wednesday‘s close.

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Rate cuts by year-end Fed 2026: 54 bps (73% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoE 2026: 61 bps (90% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) Rate hikes by year-end BoC 2026: 25 bps (93% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB 2026: 10 bps (100% probability of no change at the upcoming…

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Gold rose above $4,300 per ounce as the Fed delivered a widely expected 25bps rate cut, with Chairman Powell signaling that labor market weakness and tariffs may prompt further easing. Investors now watch for additional rate moves, especially under the Fed chair succeeding Powell in May, Commerzbank’s commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes. Fed cuts rates by 25bps, decision not…

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KEY POINTS: India’s inflation rate Y/Y increased to 0.71% vs 0.70% expected in November The prior release saw inflation falling to a record low of 0.25% The RBI’s inflation target is 4% with a +/-2% tolerance band Inflation remains far below the central bank’s target INFLATION REPORT: India’s inflation rate increased to 0.71% in November after falling to 0.25%…

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West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil remains under pressure on Friday, with prices struggling to find traction as persistent oversupply concerns continue to dominate market sentiment. At the time of writing, WTI is trading around $57.10, hovering near recent lows and on track to post a weekly decline of more than 4%. The broader tone in the oil market…

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It’s been a very light session in terms of data releases and newsflow. The main highlight was the UK GDP which missed expectations and weighed on the pound. Traders added to BoE rate cuts bets, increasing the total easing by the end of 2026 from 57 bps to 61 bps. We also got the final CPI readings for Germany,…

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The Japanese Yen (JPY) is slightly weaker versus the US Dollar (USD), underperforming most G10 currencies, as markets await next week’s BoJ meeting where a 25bps rate hike is widely expected. Policymakers signal the potential for further tightening in 2026, keeping USD/JPY range-bound between 154 and 157, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report. USD/JPY stays…

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Currency and Bond Market Overview The US Dollar is trading marginally higher today, stabilizing after two days of declines. Treasury yields have also ticked up to start the North American session, with the 10-year yield rising 3.7 basis points, retracing a similar fall from last week. The Japanese Yen and Central Bank Watch USD/JPY: The biggest mover among majors,…

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The price of Silver is currently skyrocketing. Yesterday, the price reached a new record high of $64.3 per ounce, Commerzbank’s commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes. Prices surge 120% YTD, strongest gain since 1979 “Since the beginning of the week, the price has risen by almost 10%, and by 27% over the last three weeks. The increase since the beginning…

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Jeffrey Schmid (Kansas City Fed President) Summary: Schmid, another dissenter, takes a hawkish stance driven by persistent inflation concerns. He views the economy as having momentum and the job market as balanced, which contrasts with the idea that employment is at risk. His primary worry is that inflation remains “too hot,” and he questions whether current policy is actually…

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