Supplementary budget signals upside risk – MUFG

Korea’s industrial production growth rebounded in December, indicating robust export growth. President Lee has signaled a potential supplementary budget to support various sectors, which could pose upside risks to Korea’s growth. The KRW has appreciated against the USD this week, reflecting positive sentiment, note Lin Li, Asian Head of Global Markets Research and Khang Sek Lee, Research Associate at…

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A commodity without a market: the hazelnut shock

I’m convinced that Nutella is the second most important invention after the wheel. So yes, I’m an unapologetic hazelnut fan. That said, a few months ago I started to notice something odd. The price of natural hazelnuts had more or less doubled. Shortly after, they became surprisingly hard to find, at least in supermarkets where they had always been…

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RBI expected to pause rate cuts – DBS Bank

DBS Bank’s Group Research discusses the upcoming Reserve Bank of India (RBI) monetary policy committee meeting scheduled for February 6, 2026. The report anticipates that the RBI will maintain its current interest rates, citing a firm growth impulse despite trade tensions and inflation that is off its lows. The Indian Rupee has faced depreciation pressures, and the RBI is…

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Newsquawk Week Ahead: US PCE, BoJ, China Activity Data, Flash PMIs, Canada and Japan CPI

Mon: US Holiday (MLK Day), Eurogroup Summit; EZ Final HICP (Dec), Canadian CPI (Dec), Chinese GDP (Q4), US Leading index (Oct), Housing Starts/Building Permits (Oct), Philadelphia Fed (Jan), New Home Sales (Nov), Australian Flash PMIs (Jan) Tue: PBoC LPR, EU Economic & Financial Affairs Council, UK Unemployment Rate & Average Earnings (Nov), Swiss Producer Prices (Dec), German ZEW (Jan),…

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Dow Jones dips as Warsh Fed nomination sparks uncertainty

• Major indexes edged lower as investors digested Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh to succeed Fed Chair Powell in May. • Verizon surged on strong subscriber growth and upbeat 2026 guidance, while American Express fell despite a revenue beat. • Silver plunged over 17% in a dramatic reversal from record highs, triggering profit-taking across precious metals. • Despite Friday’s…

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Germany January preliminary CPI +2.1% vs +2.0% y/y expected

Prior +1.8% HICP +2.1% vs +2.0% y/y expected Prior +2.0% Core CPI Y/Y +2.5% vs +2.4% prior Full report here Germany inflation Slightly higher than expected figures but won’t change anything for the ECB. Policymakers have repeatedly said that they won’t respond to small or short-term deviations from the 2% inflation target. The euro’s strength recently has caught the…

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Potential recapitalization in financial sector – MUFG

Unconfirmed reports suggest that China may inject RMB 200 billion into large insurers to bolster their capital buffers, alongside an additional RMB 300 billion into major banks. This move aims to support the banking sector amid downward pressure on net interest margins. The PBoC’s USD/CNY fixing has remained below the 7.0000 level, aided by a weaker Dollar, note Lin…

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US December PPI final demand Y/Y +3.0% vs +2.7% expected

These are much higher than expected figures and we’re seeing a hawkish reaction in the markets with upside in the dollar and Treasury yields, and downside in stocks and precious metals. The agency notes that the December increase in prices for final demand can be traced to a 0.7-percent advance in the index for final demand services. Prices for…

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