Markets: WTI crude oil up $3.74 to $5.6% US 10-year yields up 1.7 bps to 3.98% Gold up $80 to $5355 S&P 500 futures down 0.7% USD leads, GBP lags The whole market was holding its breath as oil futures opened to start the week and the initial price action was explosive with WTI hitting $75.33 and brent rising…
Israeli strikes were launched at Beirut’s southern suburbs on Monday as Hezbollah said it fired rockets and drones toward Israel in retaliation for the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Israeli military issues a broad evacuation order for several Lebanese towns Market reaction At the time of writing, the Gold price (XAU/USD) is trading 1.32% higher on the day…
Real interest rates still significantly negative; policy remains accommodative following December’s hike to 0.75% Natural rate of interest estimated between -1% and +0.5%, wide range makes precise policy calibration difficult Food price inflation primarily supply-side shock, not demand driven; expects deceleration below 2% in H1 2026 US economy resilience surprised to upside; AI-related investment spillover benefiting Japanese exporters and…
The NZD/USD pair tumbles to near 0.5955 during the early Asian session on Monday, pressured by a stronger US Dollar (USD). Escalating tensions in the Middle East weigh on the riskier assets, such as the Kiwi. Traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding the US-Iran tensions. The US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) report for February is due…
By now, everyone knows what’s happening as the US and Israel strike Iran. Here is the state of play one hour into futures trading: WTI crude up $5.37 to $72.40 (about 8%) Gold up 2% to $5385 The US dollar leads in FX, narrowly ahead of CHF AUD/USD is the biggest mover, down 60 pips (or 0.82%) to 0.7054…
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Comments from Trump in a newly-released video: On Iran: We have hit hundreds of targets including Revolutionary Guard facilities, air defense systems and nine ships plus naval building On Iran: Combat operations continue On Iran: Military operations will continue until all of our objectives are achieved There will likely be more U.S. casualties Iranian regime armed with long range…
Transocean’s debt load has declined but the most important piece of news has so far been that of Transocean acquiring Valaris (VAL), its fellow offshore driller, that has been reporting positive profitability and is virtually free of debt. In this article, I will analyze what the future has in store for Transocean following the last transaction. Valaris acquisition…
Australia’s January CPI delivered a double beat — headline inflation held firm at 3.8% year-over-year while the trimmed mean rose to its highest level in 16 months — but a chaotic macro backdrop made the post-event price action anything but straightforward. Which of our four Aussie strategies managed to move beyond the watchlist stage, and how much did geopolitical…
Sun: OPEC Meeting Mon: German Retail Sales (Jan), Final Manufacturing PMIs (Feb), US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Feb) Tue: Japanese Unemployment (Jan), EZ Flash HICP (Feb), US RCM/TIPP (Mar), UK Spring Statement Wed: Australian GDP (Q4), Chinese NBS PMIs (Feb), Swiss CPI (Feb), Final Composite/Services PMIs (Feb), EZ Unemployment (Jan), PPI (Jan), US ISM Services PMI (Feb) Thu: ECB Minutes…
