Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 7 bps (98% probability of no change at the next meeting) Rate hikes by year-end RBNZ: 74 bps (70% probability of no change at the next meeting) ECB: 59 bps (60% probability of no change at the next meeting) RBA: 50 bps (60% probability of rate hike at the next meeting) BoJ: 50 bps…
The (EUR) is showing a mild bullish tone against the US Dollar (USD) heading into Thursday’s US session opening, trading in the 1.1680 area after bouncing from 1.1650 earlier on the day. The pair, however, remains well below Wednesday’s highs, at 1.1721, as optimism about the ceasefire ebbed after Tehran closed the Strait of Hormuz following massive Israeli attacks…
2026.04.09 2026.04.09 Short-Term Analysis for Oil, Gold, and EURUSD for 09.04.2026 Alex Rodionovhttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/alex-rodionov/ Welcome, my fellow traders! I have prepared a price forecast for the USCrude, XAUUSD, and EURUSD using a combination of the margin zones method and technical analysis. Based on the market analysis, I suggest entry signals for intraday traders. Gold has pulled back to the support…
The RBNZ held its OCR at 2.25% for a second straight meeting, but a hawkish tone from Governor Breman and a US-Iran ceasefire sent the Kiwi surging.
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold got a boost yesterday after the announcement of a two-week ceasefire as easing financial conditions supported a broader risk-on sentiment. However, those gains were later wiped out when Israel launched an attack on Lebanon, triggering backlash, with Iran insisting that Lebanon was included in the ceasefire agreement. For now, the ceasefire is still holding, at least…
Commerzbank’s Antje Praefcke argues that the Iran ceasefire is fragile and warns against expecting Oil prices to quickly return to pre-war levels. She notes that US inflation data, including CPI and the PCE index, are likely to reflect higher energy costs over time. Rising prices could revive political pressure on the Federal Reserve, with renewed verbal attacks from President…
Can Canada’s employment report still influence BOC policy expectations? Here’s what to look out for in this top-tier release.
There’s not much other detail from the report, besides noting that the Japanese government is said to be mulling over releasing an additional amount of oil from its reserves. The timing could be as early as May, with about 20 days’ worth of oil to be released. That according to sources familiar with the matter. For some context, Japan…
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is remaining flat after three days of losses and hovering around 99.00 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The Greenback may gain ground as safe-haven demand is renewed amid uncertainty surrounding the ceasefire agreement between the United States (US) and Iran….
Friday’s March CPI report will offer the first real look at U.S. inflation since the Iran conflict sent energy prices surging, and it could be hot enough to keep the Fed on hold for the rest of the year. Here’s what to look out for.
