A 130k headline that embeds a 40k World Cup distortion implies an underlying trend read closer to 90k, which at the current stage of the Fed’s deliberation on rate timing would register as a meaningful softening signal. The private payrolls forecast of 95k is the number to watch: if it prints near Goldman’s estimate rather than the 118k consensus,…
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $69.60 during the early Asian trading hours on Monday. The WTI price falls after reports that the United States (US) and Iran have agreed to pause strikes and plan talks in Qatar on Tuesday. Washington and Tehran have agreed to end more than three days of retaliatory strikes in…
RBA Kent speech: In brief on Kent’s speech, its not really addressing current high inflation. While Kent did say the board would be less tolerant on inflation, it was in the context of rates when they are already very low (ie not the current circumstance), not as a general statement. The specific passage was: “When interest rates are already…
Geoff Yu at BNY notes that Taiwan’s strong equity performance in 2026 has coincided with net institutional outflows, mainly from U.S. pensions and hedge funds, while APAC and EMEA investors provide support. TWD FX activity remains subdued and tied to rebalancing rather than directional demand, with Taiwan’s currency still screening as fundamentally undervalued. TAIEX strength, muted TWD flows “Taiwan…
Oil has jumped a little on the weekend news: Iran, US trade strikes. Gulf ceasefire unravels over weekend. Will probably ravel soon. The escalation has since unwound somewhat: US and Iran halt strikes again with Hormuz talks set for Tuesday in Qatar Oil up a little but its not like its surging higher at all. And, you take a…
USD/JPY ended the week pressing the 162.00 handle, a whisker beneath its multi-decade high, and the more revealing detail is what it took to drag the Yen up there: a Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike that was billed as the turning point. The June move to 1.00% was the policy Yen bulls had demanded for two years, and…
The renewed exchange of strikes between the US and Iran resurrects the supply disruption premium that had begun unwinding as vessels moved through Hormuz over the prior fortnight. With both sides now publicly accusing the other of breaking the interim accord and the IRGC warning American bases face escalating retaliation, the risk of a full ceasefire collapse is no…
United Overseas Bank’s Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note USD/SGD has stalled after a six-day advance, with the pair easing to 1.2950 before closing near 1.2970. In the near term, they expect range trading between 1.2950 and 1.2980, while warning that a break below 1.2925 would signal the recent 1.2991 high may cap current Dollar strength against…
Sector overview Today’s stock market presents a mixed bag, with significant movements across various sectors. Technology is the standout performer, led by Microsoft (MSFT) surging 4.17%. However, the semiconductor industry is experiencing widespread declines, drawing attention to Nvidia (NVDA) which is down 1.18%. Additionally, Broadcom (AVGO) and Micron Technology (MU) show notable losses of 3.01% and 2.89% respectively. Market…
The upcoming week will bring a fresh test for major currency pairs as investors look ahead to key United States (US) labor market data, ISM Manufacturing figures, Eurozone inflation releases, and central bank commentary from the Federal Reserve (Fed), European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of England (BoE), and Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell…
