The important lessons of the Iran war: 1) The global economy is much more resilient than feared. The 1970s style fears about the United States falling into recession over oil prices were always over done. It’s such a smaller shares of wallet and industrial costs now but in the emerging world and even in parts of Europe, it’s a…
National Bank of Canada ’s (NBC) Stéfane Marion and Kyle Dahms highlight the Japanese Yen (JPY) trading near multi-decade lows around 161 per USD, even as long-end yield differentials move in Japan’s favour. They see stretched short yen positioning, rising intervention risk near 162–163, and gradual BoJ normalization limiting further weakness. Their forecast has USD/JPY easing to 158 by…
2026.07.07 2026.07.07 Kiwi Sets Stage for Strong Rally. Forecast as of 07.07.2026 Dmitri Demidenkohttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/dmitri-demidenko/ After months of underperforming its major peers, the New Zealand dollar has regained strength. The outlook shifted dramatically once the prospect of a Reserve Bank of New Zealand interest rate hike emerged. Let’s analyze the current market environment and develop a trading plan for the…
Will the RBNZ hike interest rates and signal scope for further tightening? Our Event Guide for the RBNZ Decision points out that Kiwi traders would likely take cues from the press conference, as strong economic data and hawkish RBNZ commentary has allowed the rate hike to be priced in for a while. Here’s what I’m watching on NZD/CHF and…
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Oil prices have briefly fallen below pre-war levels last week but eventually settled above the key 68.00 support zone. The big unwinding should have run its course now and we could see a prolonged consolidation around these levels. The situation in the Strait of Hormuz is still murky but overall, there’s no real breakdown for now. The…
RaboResearch Global Economics & Markets discusses how the Federal Reserve’s new task force on inflation frameworks under Chair Warsh may elevate trimmed inflation in policy decisions. The report argues that, despite higher energy prices, trimmed inflation’s stability since the war could justify further rate cuts, aligning with President Trump’s rate preferences, while warning that trimmed measures can also imply…
2026.07.07 2026.07.07 Short-Term Analysis for Oil, Gold, and EURUSD for 07.07.2026 Alex Rodionovhttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/alex-rodionov/ Welcome, my fellow traders! I have prepared a price forecast for the USCrude, XAUUSD, and EURUSD using a combination of the margin zones method and technical analysis. Based on the market analysis, I suggest entry signals for intraday traders. The euro continues to keep its bearish…
AUD/CAD continues to pace back and forth between support and resistance on its 4-hour time frame. Will it bounce off the top again soon?
EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we don’t have much on the agenda other than the French trade balance data which is not going to change anything for the ECB, so the market reaction will be muted. AMERICAN SESSION In the American session, we just have the weekly ADP jobs data and the NY Fed inflation expectations. Neither of…
Germany’s industrial sector activity surprisingly grow at a faster pace of 0.9% Month-on-Month (MoM) in May, the latest data published by Destatis showed on Tuesday. The Industrial Producer in the Eurozone’s largest powerhouse was estimated to rise at a moderate pace of 0.2% against the previous reading of 0.4%. Market reaction No immediate response by the Euro (EUR) was…
