Oil jumped 4.7% after the U.S. pulled Iran’s waiver, the dollar recovered, and gold fell. Updated scenarios, fresh levels, and the Wednesday Fed-minutes plan inside.

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Germany’s push to rebuild both diesel and gas buffers lands at an awkward moment, given diesel supply in Europe is already constrained by the fallout from the Iran conflict and a steep drop in Russian exports has tightened competition for barrels further. The diesel tender adds incremental demand to a market that has little slack left, and with strikes…

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The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is widely expected to raise the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) from 2.25% to 2.50% on Wednesday, snapping a three-consecutive-meeting pause.  Economists are deeply divided about how the Kiwi central bank will proceed this time after the last decision to hold the cash rate steady was a very…

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2026.07.07 2026.07.07 US Dollar Awaits FOMC Minutes. Forecast as of 07.07.2026 Dmitri Demidenkohttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/dmitri-demidenko/ The EUR/USD pair’s recent decline has been largely driven by interest rate expectations. Investors continue to price in a more aggressive Fed policy than its global peers. If those expectations prove overstated, the US dollar could face a sharp reversal as investors unwind their net long…

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A softer U.S. services PMI challenged the dollar’s early strength, putting traders on alert ahead of the latest Fed minutes.

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U.S. stocks have reversed lower after rebounding into key technical resistance. For the Nasdaq, that resistance came at the 100-hour moving average, currently at 25,969.10. The recovery from today’s low carried the index right up to that level, but, true to the technical picture, sellers leaned against the moving average and forced prices back lower. The Nasdaq is now…

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UOB Global Economics & Markets Research economists Enrico Tanuwidjaja and Vincentius Ming Shen assess Indonesia’s fiscal metrics, noting a primary surplus in May despite rapid expenditure growth. They highlight strong tax-driven revenue supported by the Coretax system, elevated central government spending on social programs, and maintain a 2026 fiscal deficit forecast near 2.9% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), with…

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2026.07.07 2026.07.07 Short-Term Analysis for BTCUSD, XRPUSD, and ETHUSD for 07.07.2026 Roman Oneginhttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/roman-onegin/ Dear readers, I’ve prepared a short-term forecast for Bitcoin, Ripple, and Ethereum based on Elliott Wave analysis. The article covers the following subjects: Major Takeaways BTCUSD: An impulse appears to have been completed, and a bearish correction is now expected. Consider short positions with a Take…

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The June U.S. jobs report came in as traders were already juggling Fed uncertainty, fragile risk sentiment, and yen intervention nerves. With central bankers stepping back from clear forward guidance, one data print had the potential to punch well above its usual weight. Here’s how our NFP watchlist held up once the numbers crossed and the dollar started moving….

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The important lessons of the Iran war: 1) The global economy is much more resilient than feared. The 1970s style fears about the United States falling into recession over oil prices were always over done. It’s such a smaller shares of wallet and industrial costs now but in the emerging world and even in parts of Europe, it’s a…

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