The Fed held rates but the hawkish dot plot did the damage: the dollar broke out, gold and Bitcoin fell, and Iran kept oil on its own track.

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Iran’s Khatam-al Anbiya HQ announced that the Strait of Hormuz will be closed to all maritime traffic. The military headquarters cites US breaches of the war-ending deal and ongoing Israeli ceasefire violations, along with the non-withdrawal in Lebanon. They warned this is only the “first step.” The Revolutionary Guard put out a similar statement yesterday. There is an under-discussed…

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Gold is supposed to be the asset you want when the world looks dangerous, which makes this week’s price action quietly remarkable. Bullion ended the week down close to 1.5%, its sixth straight week of lower or flat closes, even as a Middle East war ran into its fourth month and an unsigned ceasefire kept geopolitical risk firmly on…

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2026.06.19 2026.06.19 USD/CHF: Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast for 19.06.26–26.06.26 Alex Geutahttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/alex-geuta/ The article covers the following subjects: Major Takeaways Main scenario: Consider long positions from corrections above 0.7905 with a target of 0.8220–0.8400. A buy signal: the price holds above 0.7905. Stop Loss: below 0.7865, Take Profit: 0.8220–0.8400. Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation below 0.7905 will allow the…

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You can see the indecision on the DAX chart shown here but the overall mood was good. The bulk of the move came on Monday as the US and Iran reached a peace deal. That’s driven the price of oil lower and removed a material risk to the eurozone economy. It’s concerning there was no follow through but the…

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The Australian Dollar spent this week as a passenger in someone else’s trade. A hawkish Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and a surging US Dollar dragged the Aussie down to the 0.7000 handle, with the pair’s sharp mid-week drop owing more to events in Washington than to anything out of Canberra. Yet the Aussie is not quite the pure…

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2026.06.19 2026.06.19 EUR/USD: Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast for 19.06.26–26.06.26 Alex Geutahttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/alex-geuta/ The article covers the following subjects: Major Takeaways Main scenario: Consider short positions from corrections below the level of 1.1618 with a target of 1.1348–1.1124. A sell signal: the price holds below 1.1618. Stop Loss: above 1.1660, Take Profit: 1.1348–1.1124. Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation above the…

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High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all your initial investment; do not invest money that you…

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The Euro did something this week that ought to be impossible: it fell in the same fortnight the European Central Bank (ECB) delivered its first interest rate hike since 2023. EUR/USD slid to a fresh multi-week low near 1.1400 before clawing back to a tentative floor around 1.1450; the lesson is that not every rate hike is a vote…

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2026.06.19 2026.06.19 GBP/USD: Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast for 19.06.26–26.06.26 Alex Geutahttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/alex-geuta/ The article covers the following subjects: Major Takeaways Main scenario: Consider short positions from corrections below the level of 1.3459 with a target of 1.2936–1.2735. A sell signal: the price holds below 1.3459. Stop Loss: above 1.3500, Take Profit: 1.2936–1.2735. Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation above the…

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