Canada’s inflation picked up pace in May, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 3.2% from a year earlier, above market expectations and up from the 2.8% increase recorded in April. On a monthly basis, prices rose 1.0%.
Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) preferred core measure, which excludes more volatile components such as food and energy, rose 2.2% over the past year and increased by 0.6% compared with the previous month.
Looking at the BoC’s other key inflation gauges, Common CPI came in at 2.7% (from 2.5%), Trimmed CPI at 2.0% (from 2.0%), and Median CPI at 2.1% (from 2.1%). Together, they show that underlying price pressures are still fairly sticky, while the downward trend appears to have stalled for now.
According to the press release: “Higher prices for gasoline continued to drive the acceleration in the headline CPI in May. However, excluding gasoline, the CPI still rose at a faster pace year over year in May (+2.2%) compared with April (+2.0%).”
Market reaction
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is slightly weaker on Monday, pushing USD/CAD closer to new 14-month highs near the 1.4200 level following the release of domestic inflation data.
Canadian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Canadian Dollar (CAD) against listed major currencies today. Canadian Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.09% | -0.26% | 0.27% | -0.02% | -0.03% | 0.04% | 0.05% | |
| EUR | -0.09% | -0.35% | 0.20% | -0.12% | -0.07% | -0.02% | -0.03% | |
| GBP | 0.26% | 0.35% | 0.52% | 0.25% | 0.26% | 0.32% | 0.32% | |
| JPY | -0.27% | -0.20% | -0.52% | -0.28% | -0.28% | -0.22% | -0.19% | |
| CAD | 0.02% | 0.12% | -0.25% | 0.28% | -0.01% | 0.05% | 0.10% | |
| AUD | 0.03% | 0.07% | -0.26% | 0.28% | 0.01% | 0.08% | 0.09% | |
| NZD | -0.04% | 0.02% | -0.32% | 0.22% | -0.05% | -0.08% | 0.03% | |
| CHF | -0.05% | 0.03% | -0.32% | 0.19% | -0.10% | -0.09% | -0.03% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Canadian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CAD (base)/USD (quote).
This section below was published as a preview of the Canadian inflation report at 08:00 GMT.
- Canadian inflation is expected to rise by 2.9% YoY in May.
- The core CPI is still seen well above the BoC’s 2% target.
- The Canadian Dollar has been steadily depreciating against the US Dollar.
The publication of Canada’s May Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures on Monday will be the focus of attention. Indeed, Statistics Canada data will provide markets with an update on price pressures following its June 10 meeting, where policymakers kept the interest rate steady at 2.25%, matching the broad consensus.
Economists expect the headline CPI to rise by 2.9% in the year to May, still above the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) target and up from April’s 2.8% annual increase. On a monthly basis, prices are expected to rise by 0.7%. The bank will also closely monitor its core measure (which strips food and energy costs), which is expected to rise by 2.2%, up from 2.1% YoY in the previous month.
Following the US-Iran deal, the geopolitical premium on crude Oil prices should dissipate, reducing inflationary pressure from this source and leaving US tariffs as the sole potential driver of increases in consumer prices.
What can we expect from Canada’s inflation rate?
Inflation gained some momentum in April, and market participants appear to bet on further continuation of this trend in May.
At its latest gathering, the BoC left its policy rate unchanged at 2.25%. Governor Tiff Macklem repeatedly emphasised that any future policy move would depend on evolving economic conditions rather than on a predetermined timetable. He also highlighted that core inflation has edged lower and reiterated that weakness in the Canadian economy continues to exert downward pressure on prices.
So far, market participants expect just over 22 basis points of tightening by year-end.
Furthermore, the bank’s preferred gauges, CPI-Common, Trimmed Mean, and Median, also moderated, but at 2.5%, 2.0%, and 2.1%, respectively, they continued to run above the bank’s goal.
When is the Canada CPI data due, and how could it affect USD/CAD?
Markets will fully focus on Monday at 12:30 GMT, when Statistics Canada publishes May’s inflation figures. If inflation continues to pick up momentum, the likelihood of further rate hikes could increase, giving some air to the Canadian Dollar (CAD).
Pablo Piovano, Senior Analyst at FXStreet, notes that USD/CAD has been on a steady uptrend since the beginning of May, almost entirely tracking developments from the Middle East conflicts and the US Dollar’s (USD) price action.
Piovano points out that USD/CAD is trading at levels last seen in April 2025, well north of 1.4100. The continuation of this move could challenge the April 2025 peak at 1.4414 (April 1).
On the flip side, he highlights initial support at the vital 200-day SMA around 1.3820, closely followed by the provisional 55-day and 100-day SMAs at 1.3794 and 1.3751, respectively. South from here emerges the May base at 1.3549 (May 1), seconded by the March floor at 1.3525 (March 9) and the February valley at 1.3504 (February 11).
“Momentum could prompt some technical correction,” he adds, noting that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is navigating comfortably in overbought levels past 86, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) above 44 suggests the underlying trend remains robust.
Inflation FAQs
Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.
Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.
Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it.
Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
