The GBP/USD pair gains traction to near 1.3290 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The British Pound (GBP) strengthens against the US Dollar (USD) as the UK’s likely next Prime Minister, Andy Burnham, has eased market concerns by pledging strict fiscal discipline. The US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for June will take center stage later on Thursday.
Burnham vowed on Monday to deliver radical change to the nation’s politics by handing more power to its regions and by encouraging collaboration over argument in a 10-year mission to spur “good” growth. Traders continue to assess the political transition in the UK following Burnham’s emergence as the next leader.
Natixis analysts believe that maintaining investor confidence in the UK’s public finances will be critical. While Burnham’s commitment to fiscal discipline offers near-term support, markets will closely monitor future budgets for any signs that fiscal rules are being relaxed to finance higher public spending.
All eyes will be on the US jobs data later in the day as it could offer some hints about the US interest rate path. The US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) is expected to show 110,000 job additions in June, while the Unemployment Rate is projected to hold steady at 4.3% during the same period. Any signs of a resilient US labor market could lift the Greenback and act as a headwind for the major pair.
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data.
Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates.
When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP.
A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
