EUROPEAN SESSION:

In the European session, the main highlight was the UK CPI report. The data surprised to the downside across the board weighing on the pound and boosting the UK stock market.

The BoE is widely expected to cut by 25 bps tomorrow bringing the Bank Rate to 3.75%, but following the soft employment and inflation data this week, the central bank could sound more dovish.

Looking ahead we don’t have much on the agenda other than the final Eurozone CPI figures and the German ZEW. None of the data is going to change anything for the ECB which is expected to keep eveything unchanged at the monetary policy decision tomorrow.

AMERICAN SESSION:

In the American session, the only highlight is Fed’s Waller speech on the economic outlook. He’s been dovish since the first half of the year because he expected more weakness in the labour market and inflation to peak around 3% due to tariffs. He’s been right on pretty much everything for a long time and that’s why the market pays more attention to his views.

Waller is also a contender for the Fed chair position, but contrary to Warsh and Hassett, he’s respected among his fellow Fed members and he would be far more likely to persuade the other Fed members to vote with him. Moreover, the market would certainly love him as Fed Chair.

CENTRAL BANK SPEAKERS:

• 13:15 GMT/08:15 ET – Fed’s Waller (dovish – voter)
• 14:05 GMT/09:05 ET – Fed’s Williams (dovish – voter)
• 17:30 GMT/12:30 ET – Fed’s Bostic (hawkish – non voter)