The U.S. private sector shed 32,000 jobs in November, according to ADP’s National Employment Report, marking the largest monthly decline since spring 2023 and falling far short of the 15,000 gain economists had expected.

The disappointing figure reinforces mounting concerns about labor market deterioration heading into the Federal Reserve’s December policy meeting.

Key Takeaways

• Private sector employment fell by 32,000 in November versus expectations for a 15,000 gain, with October’s figure revised upward from 42,000 to 47,000
• Small businesses drove the decline, with establishments under 50 employees shedding 120,000 jobs—the steepest drop since May 2020—while large firms added 39,000 positions
• Pay growth continued to moderate, with job-stayers seeing annual wage increases of 4.4% (down from 4.5% in October) and job-changers at 6.3% (down from 6.7%)
• Goods-producing sectors suffered their largest losses since the pandemic, declining 19,000 jobs, led by manufacturing (-18,000) and construction (-9,000)
• Service sectors also contracted, losing 13,000 positions, with professional/business services (-26,000) and information (-20,000) posting notable declines

Link to ADP Employment Change Report (November 2025)

ADP’s Chief Economist Dr. Nela Richardson said hiring has been choppy as employers deal with cautious consumers and an uncertain outlook. You could see that clearly in the split between big and small companies.

Large firms managed to add about 39,000 jobs, but small businesses pulled back hard, cutting roughly 46,000 positions, while mid-sized companies trimmed another 74,000. It feels like tighter margins are hitting the little guys first, while the big players still have some hiring muscle.

Sector data did not make things any brighter. Manufacturing fell again, construction eased despite its usual fourth-quarter lift, and information services saw a steep decline. Only education and health services and leisure and hospitality showed any strength, and even those gains were on the mild side.

Wage growth cooled as well, adding to the sense that the labor market is loosening.

Market Reactions

U.S. Dollar vs. Major Currencies: 5-min

Overlay of USD vs. Major Currencies Chart by TradingView

The Greenback was already drifting lower before the ADP release, which suggested traders were leaning toward weak data.

When ADP confirmed a 32,000 job drop instead of a 15,000 gain, the dollar slipped further but briefly bounced. The quick move appeared to be profit-taking as the U.S. session opened, with traders waiting for the ISM Services report.

The bullish pullback didn’t last. ISM Services printed at 52.6, slightly above expectations, but markets barely reacted. Traders seemed far more convinced that labor market softness carried more weight, so they discounted the mixed signals from services. By the close, the dollar index was down about 0.45%, its weakest single day since September.

The dollar fell against every major currency, taking its biggest hits from the pound, Aussie, and Kiwi, while declines against the Loonie, euro, and the Swiss franc were more measured.

The broad retreat showed just how aggressively markets interpreted the ADP report as clearing the way for Fed easing. Futures now price more than a 90% chance of a December rate cut, up from roughly 25% only two weeks ago.

With the November jobs report delayed until December 16, which comes after the December 10 FOMC announcement, the ADP release naturally took on more influence in shaping those expectations.