After several years of platinum market deficits, a surplus is expected in 2026. Will it allow XPT/USD bears to extend the correction or even break the uptrend? Or will tariffs and gold intervene? Let’s look at the key factors and outline a trading plan.
The article covers the following subjects:
Major Takeaways
- Precious metals have diverged in performance.
- WPIC expects a platinum market surplus.
- XPTUSD may fall if the metal flows back to London.
- A rebound from $1,465 or a breakout above $1,585 are signals to buy platinum.
Monthly Fundamental Forecast for Platinum
For most of the year, precious metals were racing toward their October highs, but their paths diverged after the pullback. Gold is struggling to recover, silver is nearly back in an uptrend, and platinum is declining slowly but steadily. The surplus projected for 2026 by the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) could prolong this decline.
According to WPIC, platinum supply will rise by 4% next year, driven mainly by faster recycling. Demand, on the other hand, will decline by 6%. Investment demand is the main culprit. As trade tensions ease, the return of bars from New York to London and a reduction of COMEX inventories by roughly 150,000 ounces will push investment demand down by 52%. It could be worse if not for a strong interest in coins — WPIC expects coin demand to rise by 30%.
Platinum Market’s Evolution
Source: WPIC.
The result will be a small market surplus in 2026 — about 20,000 ounces — compared with a deficit of 692,000 ounces in 2025 and 968,000 ounces in 2024. Notably, the estimate for the current year was lowered from 850,000 ounces.
The U.S. added platinum to its list of critical minerals, increasing the risk of import tariffs. This triggered flows of metal from London to New York and pushed lease rates in the UK to 15%, compared with just 1% in 2024. That surge in lease costs helped drive XPTUSD to its 12-year highs in October. WPIC believes the peak in trade tensions has already passed, suggesting these flows may reverse.
I wouldn’t be so sure. If the Supreme Court blocks Donald Trump from imposing blanket tariffs, the White House could shift to tariffs on specific goods, and platinum may get caught in that crossfire. This would keep investment demand elevated and support XPTUSD, along with continued interest in platinum jewelry as gold remains expensive.
Platinum Demand: Dynamics and Structure
Source: WPIC.
Platinum is part of the precious metals sector and remains tied to the performance of its leader, XAU/USD. Expectations of the Federal Reserve easing in early 2026 and political pressure from Donald Trump to push interest rates lower could weaken the dollar and reduce Treasury yields. A supportive macro backdrop would benefit gold and the entire precious-metals sector.
Monthly Trading Plan for XPTUSD
Thus, WPIC’s pessimistic projections may not materialize. On the contrary, Fed policy easing and the political pressure threatening central bank independence would favor XPTUSD bulls. Bears’ failure to push prices below $1,465, or a move back above $1,585 per ounce, will be a signal to buy platinum.
This forecast is based on the analysis of fundamental factors, including official statements from financial institutions and regulators, various geopolitical and economic developments, and statistical data. Historical market data are also considered.
Price chart of XPTUSD in real time mode
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