Investors look ahead to the last full trading week of the month and year. Christians in Catholic countries will celebrate Christmas on the night of December 24–25.
Friday is Boxing Day in Catholic countries in Europe, several countries in the Americas, and the British Commonwealth. Meanwhile, the world will be preparing to welcome 2026.
Trading volumes are expected to be low, and the market will be thin during the upcoming week of December 22–28, 2025.
There will be only a few macroeconomic statistics releases. Nevertheless, market participants will focus on crucial data from the UK, the US, and Japan, as well as the results of the People’s Bank of China’s meeting.
Note: During the coming week, new events may be added to the calendar, and/or some scheduled events may be canceled. GMT time
The article covers the following subjects:
Major Takeaways
- Monday: The People’s Bank of China’s interest rate decision, UK GDP.
- Tuesday: The Reserve Bank of Australia’s December meeting minutes release, US PCE and GDP data for Q3, US Consumer Confidence Index.
- Wednesday: No important macroeconomic statistics are scheduled.
- Thursday: Catholic Christmas, Japanese CPI data.
- Friday: Boxing Day. No important macroeconomic statistics are scheduled.
- Key event of the week: US PCE and GDP data for Q3.
Monday, December 22
01:15 – CNY: People’s Bank of China Interest Rate Decision
Since May 2012, the People’s Bank of China has been lowering its interest rate to support Chinese manufacturers. Last time, the bank reduced the rate in October 2024 after a long pause since August 2023 and a brief halt in July, bringing the rate down by 0.1% to its current level of 3.00%.
What will the Chinese central bank do this time after pausing? The People’s Bank of China will likely keep the interest rate unchanged at 3.00% at this meeting, although other decisions are also possible.
Should the People’s Bank of China make statements that deviate from expectations, volatility may increase across the entire financial market, particularly in the Asian one. Investors will closely watch the bank’s assessment of the Chinese economy’s prospects and its policy stance in the short term.
07:00 – GBP: UK GDP for Q3 2025 (Final Estimate)
GDP is viewed as an indicator of the UK economy’s condition. The growing GDP indicator is considered positive for the British pound. The UK GDP rate was one of the highest in the world until 2016, when the Brexit referendum occurred. Subsequently, its growth decelerated, and with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the UK GDP rate dropped.
Previous GDP values: +0.3% in Q2 2025, +0.7% in Q1 2025, +1.5% in Q4 2024, 0.0% in Q3, +0.5% in Q2, +0.7% in Q1 2024, -0.3% in Q4, -0.1% in Q3, 0% in Q2, +0.2% in Q1 2023, +0.1% in Q4 2022, -0.1% in Q3, +0.1% in Q2, +0.5% in Q1 2022, +1.5% in Q4 2022.
The key factors that may force the Bank of England to keep the rate low include weak GDP, slow labor market growth, and low consumer spending. Should the GDP data fall significantly below previous values, the pound will face downward pressure. Conversely, high GDP readings will bolster the currency.
The preliminary estimate stood at +0.1%.
Tuesday, December 23
00:30 – AUD: Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes
The document is published two weeks after the meeting and the interest rate decision. If the RBA is optimistic about the country’s labor market and GDP growth rate and is hawkish on the inflation outlook, the rate may be increased at the next meeting, which is favorable for the Australian dollar. The bank’s dovish rhetoric on inflation, in particular, is putting pressure on the Australian dollar.
At the August 2025 meeting, the RBA cut its interest rate by 0.25% to 3.60%. This move represents a shift away from the 12-year high of 4.35%, as the bank pointed to declining inflationary pressures and global uncertainties. This rate is now at its lowest since 2023.
At the December meeting, the interest rate was kept at the previous level of 3.60%.
RBA Governor Michelle Bullock remarked that “annual core inflation above 3% is not ideal” and noted that “we still got a little bit of tightness that will take a little bit of heat out of the economy to bring inflation back down.” However, she declined to comment on when and by how much the RBA might begin cutting interest rates, stating that “there is still much uncertainty on inflation.”
Moreover, Bullock mentioned earlier that “it’s an open question about whether there are many more rate cuts to come,” and “the Board will do what it thinks it needs to do to get inflation back to 2.5 per cent”.
If the released minutes contain unexpected information regarding the RBA’s monetary policy issues, the volatility in the Australian dollar will increase.
13:30 – USD: US GDP Annual Growth Rate for Q3 (Final Estimate). Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)
The GDP data is one of the key indicators, along with labor market and inflation data, for the US Fed in terms of its monetary policy. A positive indicator reading strengthens the US dollar, while a weak GDP report is harmful for the currency. In Q2 2025, GDP posted +3.8%, after -0.5% in Q1, +2.4% in Q4 2024, +3.1% in Q3, +3.0% in Q2, +1.6% in Q1 2024, +3.2% in Q4 2023, +4.4%, +2.4% in Q2, +2.8% in Q1 2023.
If the data indicate a decline in GDP in Q3 2025, the US dollar will face significant pressure. Conversely, positive GDP figures will bolster the greenback and US stock indices.
Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data reflect the average amount of money consumers spend per month on durable goods, consumer goods, and services. The core PCE price index excludes food and energy prices. The annual core PCE is the main inflation gauge used by the US Fed as the primary inflation indicator. Quarterly data is published within a broader GDP report. This data serves as an indirect gauge of consumer spending, the main driver of the US economy.
The inflation rate, along with the labor market and GDP data, is crucial for the Fed in determining its monetary policy. Growing prices exert pressure on the central bank to tighten its policy and raise interest rates.
The PCE data above the forecasted and/or previous values may boost the US dollar, while a decline in the reading will likely exert a negative impact on the greenback.
Previous quarterly values: +2.6%, +3.5%, +2.6% in Q4 2024.
15:00 – USD: Consumer Confidence Index
A Conference Board’s survey of nearly 3,000 US households evaluates current and future economic conditions and overall economic sentiment. Consumer confidence in the country’s economic development and stability is a key indicator of consumer spending and, consequently, economic performance. High confidence levels suggest economic growth, while low levels indicate stagnation.
Previous indicator values: 88.7, 94.6, 94.2, 97.4, 97.2, 93.0, 98.0, 86.0, 92.9, 98.3, 104.1 in January 2025, 104.7 in December 2024, 111.7, 108.7, 98.7, 103.3, 100.3, 100.4, 102.0, 97.0, 104.7, 106.7, 114.8, 110.7, 102.0, 102.6, 103.0, 106.1, 117.0, 109.7, 102.3, 101.3, 104.2.
The increase in the indicator values will bolster the US dollar exchange rate, while the decrease will weaken it.
Wednesday, December 24
It is Christmas in Catholic countries across the Pacific region, and markets and banks will be closed. No significant macroeconomic data releases are scheduled. Trading volumes and overall market activity are expected to be minimal. However, this does not rule out the possibility of sharp short-term moves and heightened volatility in thin market conditions. In addition, some brokers may close trading early, depending on their location.
Thursday, December 25
It is Catholic Christmas in Europe and the US, and markets, banks, and most brokerages will be closed. No major macroeconomic releases are scheduled, with the exception of late-evening data from Japan (GMT). Trading volumes are expected to be extremely light.
Early in the Asian trading session (after 00:00) – JPY: Speech by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda
In his upcoming speech, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda is expected to comment on the bank’s monetary policy. Markets typically react strongly when the Bank of Japan governor addresses this topic, especially if he makes unexpected remarks, leading to increased volatility in yen trading as well as in Asian and global financial markets. Conversely, if he does not mention monetary policy, the market reaction will likely be subdued.
23:30 – JPY: Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI). Tokyo Core CPI excluding Food and Energy
Tokyo’s consumer price indexes, published by the Statistics Bureau of Japan, gauge the price change of a selected basket of goods and services over a given period. These indexes are key indicators for assessing inflation and consumer preferences.
Previous values YoY:
- Tokyo CPI :+2.7%, +2.8%, +2.5%, +2.6%, +2.9%, +3.1%, +3.4%, +3.5%, +2.9%, +2.9%, +3.4%,+3.1%, +2.6%, +1.8%, +2.1%, +2.6%, 2.2%, +2.3%, +2.2%, +1.8%, +2.6%, +2.5%, +1.8%, +2.4%, +2.6%, +3.3%, +2.8%, +2.9%, +3.2%, +3.2%, +3.2%, +3.5%, +3.3%, + 3.4%, +4.4% in January 2023;
- Tokyo CPI excluding food and energy: +2.8%, +2.8%, +2.5%, +3.0%, +3.1%, +3.1%, +2.1%, +2.0%, +1.1%, +2.2%, +2.5%, +2.4%, +2.2%, +1.8%, +1.6%, +1.6%, +1.5%, +1.8%, +2.2%, +1.8%, +2.9%, +3.1%, +3.3%, +3.5%, +3.6%, +3.8%, +4.0%, +4.0%, +4.0%, +3.8%, +3.9%, +3.8%, +3.4%, +3.1%, +3.0% in January 2023.
The indicator reading lower than forecasted and/or previous values may weaken the yen, while a rise in the indicator may strengthen the currency.
Friday, December 26
Most European and US banks and stock exchanges will be closed for Boxing Day. No important macroeconomic statistics are scheduled for release. Forex trading volumes will be minimal
Price chart of USDX in real time mode
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