Markets treaded water on Thursday as traders positioned cautiously ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve decision, with oil leading gains while Bitcoin extended its retreat from recent highs.

Mixed economic signals—unexpectedly strong U.S. jobless claims data alongside weak Canadian activity readings—left major asset classes range-bound for most of the session, though oil managed to rally on geopolitical developments.

Check out the forex news and economic updates you may have missed in the latest trading session!

Forex News Headlines & Data:

• Australia Balance of Trade for October 2025: 4.39B (4.2B forecast; 3.94B previous)
  • Australia Exports for October 2025: 3.4% m/m (7.9% m/m previous)
  • Australia Imports for October 2025: 2.0% m/m (1.1% m/m previous)
• Australia Household Spending for October 2025: 5.6% y/y (5.0% y/y forecast; 5.1% y/y previous); 1.3% m/m (0.2% m/m forecast; 0.2% m/m previous)
• Swiss Unemployment Rate for November 2025: 2.9% (2.9% forecast; 2.9% previous)
• Swiss procure.ch Manufacturing PMI for November 2025: 49.7 (48.5 forecast; 48.2 previous)
• Euro area HCOB Construction PMI for November 2025: 45.4 (45.1 forecast; 44.0 previous)
• U.K. New Car Sales for November 2025: -1.6% y/y (1.0% y/y forecast; 0.5% y/y previous)
• U.K. S&P Global Construction PMI for November 2025: 39.4 (45.0 forecast; 44.1 previous)
• Euro area Retail Sales for October 2025: 1.5% y/y (1.1% y/y forecast; 1.0% y/y previous); 0.0% m/m (0.3% m/m forecast; -0.1% m/m previous)
• U.S. Challenger Job Cuts for November 2025: 71.32k (98.0k forecast; 153.07k previous)
• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for November 29, 2025: 191.0k (220.0k forecast; 216.0k previous)
• Canada Ivey PMI for November 2025: 48.4 (52.2 forecast; 52.4 previous)
• ECB chief economist Philip Lane emphasized on Thursday that recent euro area inflation has surprised slightly to the upside but that risks are now more two‑sided; argued that the ECB should stay data‑dependent and avoid reacting to small or clearly transitory deviations from its 2% target

Broad Market Price Action:

Dollar Index, Gold, S&P 500, Oil, U.S. 10-yr Yield, Bitcoin Overlay Chart by TradingView

Thursday’s session delivered relatively subdued price action across most major asset classes, with low volatility dominating as traders likely positioned defensively ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve policy decision and Friday’s delayed U.S. inflation data.

The S&P 500 closed marginally higher at 6,855.80, up just 0.04% on the day. U.S. equity futures traded essentially flat during the Asian session before maintaining their sideways drift through London hours. The index caught a brief bid following the stronger-than-expected jobless claims data in early U.S. trading, but the move lacked conviction as traders appeared reluctant to chase the market higher with the Fed meeting looming. Meta Platforms jumped 4% on reports executives are considering budget cuts for the metaverse group, while small caps outperformed with a roughly 1% gain, possibly benefiting from expectations of continued Fed accommodation supporting the economically-sensitive segment.

Gold edged 0.13% higher to settle around $4,208.60 per ounce after a relatively quiet session. The precious metal traded sideways with a bearish lean through Asian and London hours before finding modest support during U.S. trading, likely correlating with the initial post-jobless claims dip in the dollar. Despite the muted price action, gold remained well-supported near its elevated levels as traders maintained defensive positioning amid ongoing Fed rate cut expectations and geopolitical tensions.

WTI crude oil emerged as the session’s standout performer, rallying 1.38% to close near $59.50. Oil traded modestly higher during Asian hours, pulled back during the morning London session before accelerating its gains during U.S. hours. The rally appeared driven by geopolitical developments, with Russian President Putin’s comments emphasizing continued energy cooperation with India and his rejection of certain U.S.-backed Ukraine peace proposals seemingly offsetting concerns about persistent oversupply. President Trump’s reiteration that the U.S. will strike alleged drug cartels in Venezuela “very soon” may have provided additional support, as military intervention could potentially disrupt Venezuelan oil production and exports.

Bitcoin extended its recent retreat, declining 1.50% to trade around $92,309.80. The cryptocurrency faced selling pressure throughout the session, dropping during Asian hours and continuing lower through London and U.S. trading. There were no direct Bitcoin-specific catalysts to point to, so it’s possible that we’re seeing a bit of profit-taking following the sharp rebound from Monday’s bottom around $84,000 to $94,000 earlier in the Asia session.

The 10-year Treasury yield climbed 0.96% to settle around 4.110%, rising roughly 4 basis points on the day. Yields steadily climbed throughout the day, with a spike in volatility following the strong U.S. jobless claims data, which temporarily reduced expectations for aggressive Fed easing.

FX Market Behavior: U.S. Dollar vs. Majors

Overlay of USD vs. Majors Forex Chart by TradingView

The U.S. dollar posted mixed performance on Thursday, trading on both sides of unchanged throughout the session before finishing marginally positive against most major currencies after a quick round-trip journey shaped primarily by U.S. labor market data.

During the Asian session, the greenback traded net positive against major currencies, likely extending some of Wednesday’s late-session strength. Markets were relatively quiet, with traders maintaining cautious positioning ahead of key data releases later in the global day.

The London session saw the dollar trade mixed but arguably net lower against major currencies. The weakness correlated with disappointing European economic data—particularly the UK Construction PMI plunging to 39.4 versus 45.0 expected and Eurozone Retail Sales missing on the monthly reading—which paradoxically seemed to weigh on the dollar rather than support it. This counterintuitive move suggested that traders were either positioning for the upcoming U.S. jobless claims release or that concerns about broader global economic weakness were dominating currency flows.

The U.S. session brought significant dollar volatility centered on the Initial Jobless Claims release at 8:30am ET. The data came in at 191,000 versus 220,000 expected—the lowest reading in over three years—initially sending the dollar sharply lower in what appeared to be a “sell the fact” reaction or possibly algorithmic trading gone awry. However, the greenback quickly reversed course and rebounded through the rest of the session as markets digested the implications of the strong labor market data for Fed policy.

The dollar’s recovery also correlated with the the disappointing Canada Ivey PMI (48.4 versus 52.2 expected), which showed Canadian business activity contracting.  An argument could be made that some capital flowed from the Loonie to the Greenback around this time. At the Thursday close, the dollar was mixed against major currencies but arguably net positive, finishing as one of the better-performing major currencies alongside oil.

Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar

• Japan Reuters Tankan Index for December 2025 at 11:00 pm GMT
• Japan Household Spending for October 2025 at 11:30 pm GMT
• Japan Leading Economic Index Prel for October 2025 at 5:00 am GMT
• Germany Factory Orders for October 2025 at 7:00 am GMT
• U.K. Halifax House Price Index for November 2025 at 7:00 am GMT
• Euro area GDP Growth Rate & Employment Change for September 2025 at 10:00 am GMT
• U.K. BBA Mortgage Rate for November 2025 at 10:00 am GMT
• Canada Employment Situation Update for November 2025 at 1:30 pm GMT
• U.S. Factory Orders for October 2025
• University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for December 2025 at 3:00 pm GMT
• U.S. Core PCE Price Index for September 2025 at 3:00 pm GMT
• U.S. Personal Income & Spending for September 2025 at 3:00 pm GMT
• Euro area ECB Lane Speech at 3:10 pm GMT
• U.S. Consumer Credit Change for October 2025 at 8:00 pm GMT

Friday’s calendar looks relatively quiet through Asian and London hours before delivering a concentrated burst of high-impact U.S. data during the afternoon session. The Core PCE Price Index—the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge—will be the marquee release, with economists projecting a third straight 0.2% monthly increase that would keep the year-over-year figure hovering just below 3%. This reading, though dated at September due to the government shutdown delays, could still influence market expectations for next week’s Fed decision, particularly if it shows unexpected stickiness in underlying inflation pressures.

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will provide fresh insight into household confidence heading into year-end, while Canadian employment data could drive volatility in the loonie following Thursday’s disappointing Ivey PMI reading. Any significant deviation from consensus in these reports could trigger positioning adjustments ahead of the weekend, though markets may remain cautious given the Fed’s blackout period and next Wednesday’s policy decision looming large.

Stay frosty out there, forex friends, and don’t forget to check out our Forex Correlation Calculator when planning to take on risk!