Chancellor Reeves sidestepped the biggest fiscal dangers, delivering limited near-term tightening while preserving headroom through backloaded tax hikes, NOMURA’s FX analyst Dominic Bunning reports. GBP shorts face near-term squeeze “Chancellor Reeves avoided the major tail risks that we were worried about. Limited near-term tightening but larger fiscal headroom (via backloaded tax hikes) seems to be amongst the ‘least bad’…
2025.11.26 2025.11.26 Brent Declines As Russia-Ukraine Peace Agreement Looms. Forecast as of 26.11.2025 Dmitri Demidenkohttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/dmitri-demidenko/ The oil market has dramatically changed. Millions of barrels are stranded at sea, China and India are afraid to buy Russian crude, and Moscow’s revenues are falling. All this is the result of Western sanctions. What will they lead to? Let’s discuss this topic…
Australia’s annual inflation rate accelerated to 3.8% in October 2025, exceeding market expectations and complicating the Reserve Bank of Australia’s path toward further monetary easing. The October reading marks an uptick from September’s 3.6% and a significant beat on the 3.5% consensus, with core inflation also climbing. Key Takeaways Headline CPI: Rose 3.8% year-over-year in October, up from 3.6%…
Fundamental Overview The USD weakened across the board yesterday following soft ADP data and a Bloomberg report saying that Hassett emerged as the frontrunner for the Fed Chair position. The greenback was already under some pressure caused by Fed’s Williams endorsement for a December cut on Friday. The probability for a December cut is now at 76%, which generally…
Gold is breaking historical norms. Outperformance versus the US Dollar (USD) matches a record set last year, and the 2025 range in Gold is the largest since 1980. Stabilising investor flow and technical measures indicate a positioning correction has completed, Deutsche Bank’s Research Analyst Michael Hsueh report. Central bank demand keeps Gold strong “Third quarter supply-demand data supports a…
2025.11.26 2025.11.26 Short-Term Analysis for Oil, Gold, and EURUSD for 26.11.2025 Alex Rodionovhttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/alex-rodionov/ Welcome, my fellow traders! I have prepared a price forecast for the USCrude, XAUUSD, and EURUSD using a combination of the margin zones method and technical analysis. Based on the market analysis, I suggest entry signals for intraday traders. Gold is testing the resistance (B) 4,163–4,148….
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut its Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% on Wednesday, matching market expectations but delivering a surprisingly hawkish message that sent the New Zealand dollar surging across the board. The Monetary Policy Committee voted 5-1 in favor of the reduction, with one member preferring to hold rates unchanged at…
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The Australian Dollar (AUD) advances against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, extending its gains for the fourth successive session. The AUD/USD pair holds ground after the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released the first “complete” monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI), which climbed by 3.8% year-over-year (YoY) in October. The reading surpassed the market consensus of a 3.6% rise…
GBP/NZD looks comfortable inside an identified range after today’s catalysts! Will the pair head for lower areas of interest before seeing more sustained demand? Here’s what we’re seeing on the 4-hour time frame: GBP/NZD 4-hour Forex Chart by TradingView A surprisingly hawkish call from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) earlier today sent the New Zealand dollar higher…
