Australia’s July CPI report delivered a substantial upside surprise, printing at 2.8% annually versus 2.0% expected. This hot inflation reading temporarily reduced RBA easing expectations and provided support for the Australian dollar during a week dominated by Fed independence concerns and mixed risk sentiment. Let’s examine which pairs from our watchlist capitalized on this environment of reduced RBA dovishness…
Prior +2.0% HICP +2.1% vs +2.0% y/y expected Prior +1.8% The state readings, which were firmer than estimated, from earlier can be found here. Core annual inflation remains unchanged for a third straight month at 2.7%. That is still on the higher side as it holds above the ECB’s 2% target, so more work needs to be done in…
China NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI meets expectations (50.3) in August
We have a pretty tranquil session ahead in terms of data releases. The main highlights are the US PCE report for July and the Canadian GDP. The Core PCE is expected at 2.9% Y/Y and 0.3% M/M. Unless we get notable deviations, I don’t expect the market to react to it too much given that the PCE can be…
China NBS Manufacturing PMI below forecasts (49.5) in August: Actual (49.4)
Prior 2.8% Core PCE M/M 0.3% vs 0.3% expected Prior 0.3% Headline PCE: PCE Y/Y 2.6% vs 2.6% expected Prior 2.6% PCE M/M 0.2% vs 0.2% expected Prior 0.3% Income/Spending: Personal income M/M 0.4% vs 0.4% expected Prior 0.3% Personal spending M/M 0.5% vs 0.5% expected 0.3% prior (revised to 0.4%) Minimal reaction in the markets, which shouldn’t be…
Silver advances to its strongest level since September 2011. Markets are pricing about an 87% chance of a Fed rate cut in September, despite firmer core PCE inflation. Technical outlook points to a potential break above $40.00, with resistance at $41.48 and $43.40, while support holds at $39.00 and the 100-period EMA. Silver (XAG/USD) extends its rally for the…
Mon: US Labor Day, South Korean Trade Balance Prelim (Aug), Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Final), EZ, UK, US Manufacturing PMI (Final), New Zealand Terms of Trade (Q2) Tue: South Korean CPI (Aug), EZ Flash HICP (Aug), US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug) Wed: NBP Announcement, Australia Real GDP (Q2), US ADP National Employment (Aug), Chinese Caixin Services PMI (Final), EZ,…
AUD/USD gained ground for a fourth straight session on Friday. The Aussie is gaining ground on a slumping US Dollar as Fed rate cut hopes remain. Markets largely shrugged off another uptick in US PCE inflation. AUD/USD caught a late-week lift on Friday, rising into the 0.6550 region after the latest US inflation data pushed the US Dollar (USD)…
Prior month -0.1% Advanced estimate for the month of July +0.1% GDP Q2: Q/Q annualized -1.6% vs -0.6% Prior 2.2% (revised to -2.0%) The Canadian dollar weakened across the board following the release as the data disappointed across the board. StatCan notes that the contraction in the second quarter was driven by significant declines in the export of goods,…
