Germany’s construction sector remains in contraction territory, but at least the rate of decline slowed towards the end of Q2. That is helped by a stronger upturn in both civil engineering and commercial activity. However, even that hasn’t been enough to offset the drag from residential activity – which remains a big factor in weighing down business confidence as…
Bank of England (BoE) rate-setter Alan Taylor noted late on Friday that downside pressures are continuing to build up underneath the UK’s economy, signaling that early rate cuts may be needed ahead of a questionable forecasting period. Key highlights Would expect bank rate to normalise close to 2.75%, absent shocks. Would expect bank rate, should MPR inflation projections be…
Prior -0.7% Retail sales y/y +1.3% vs +3.7% prior In the three months to May 2025, retail sales fell by 0.1% in value and by 0.5% in volume compared to the previous three-month period. Compared to May 2024, retail sales increased by 3.2% for large-scale distribution, decreased by 0.4% for small-scale distribution, remained stable for non-store sales and fell…
GBP/USD holds steady amid holiday thin trading, UK debt concerns in focus The British Pound (GBP) is treading water against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, as the Sterling comes under renewed pressure amid lingering fiscal concerns. A combination of cautious risk sentiment, stronger-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, and political uncertainty in the UK is keeping the Pound on the…
That’s the sixth month running that total activity has fallen but at least at a lesser pace in June. That being said, new orders is an issue as it continues to decline at a quicker pace on the month. That is leading business optimism to dwindle further to its lowest in two-and-a-half years. S&P Global notes that: “June data…
WTI Crude Oil remains under pressure near mid-$65s amid thin holiday trading and a lack of fresh catalysts. Traders remain cautious ahead of the July 5 OPEC+ meeting and the July 9 deadline for potential US tariff action. OPEC+ is expected to approve a third consecutive supply increase for August, though actual output remains below target. West Texas Intermediate…
Strong euro may increase the risk of undershooting on inflation Closely watching exchange rate volatility Don’t see any inflationary effects from US tariffs ECB is in a good position on rates and inflation But must remain completely optional on rates He’s not the first one to be touching on the euro currency in the past few weeks. That’s as…
GBP/JPY edges lower as safe-haven demand rises ahead of President Trump’s July 9 tariff deadline. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer faces political pressure from the Labour Party, limiting upside potential for Sterling. GBP/JPY retreats as technical resistance firms around 198.00 The Japanese Yen (JPY) is strengthening against the British Pound (GBP) on Friday as markets turn cautious ahead of…
Prior -2.2% PPI +0.3% vs +0.3% y/y expected Prior +0.7% Looking at the breakdown, the main drag was actually energy prices which declined by 2.1% on the month. If you strip that out, euro area producer prices were actually up 0.1% in May. That owes to an increase in prices for durable consumer goods (+0.3%) and non-durable consumer goods…
Gold is on track for a weekly gain above 1.5% as tariff threats shift the mood sour. Trump confirms tariffs of up to 70% may take effect on August 1 amid trade flare-up. Treasury’s Bessent expects 100 countries to face reciprocal tariffs, while trade deals are incoming. Gold price resumes its uptrend on Friday, poised to print gains of…
