GBP/USD jumps past 1.3500 as Powell leans dovish The GBP/USD rallies as the Fed Chair Jerome Powell takes the stand at the Jackson Hole Symposium. At the time of writing, the pair trades above 1.3500 after Powell hints that the Fed might be ready to resume its easing cycle. Read More… Pound Sterling trades lower ahead of Fed Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole…
Pantheon Macroeconomics said Powell’s Friday remarks mark a clear change in tone from the Fed’s July minutes, which had stressed upside inflation risks. Powell now sees the “balance of risks” shifting, with weaker labor data the catalyst. July’s jobs report showed payroll growth averaging just 35k over three months, down sharply from 168k in 2024. Powell acknowledged tariffs remain…
USD/JPY drops nearly 1% to 146.66 as traders react to Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks, retreating from an intraday high of 148.78. Fed Chair Jerome Powell highlighted downside risks to jobs and uncertainty from higher tariffs, keeping a cautious but flexible policy stance. Markets sharply increased Fed rate cut bets; CME FedWatch now shows 90% probability of a 25 bps…
April – June 2025 retail sales data from NZ. New Zealand Retail Sales +2.3% y/y Retail Sales Volumes +0.5% q/q Via the Stats NZ report, in brief: “Retail activity recorded a modest increase in the June quarter, with growth seen in most industries” Eight of the 15 retail industries had higher retail sales volumes in the June 2025 quarter…
USD/CAD drops 0.49% to 1.3835 after Powell’s dovish Jackson Hole speech and upbeat Canadian Retail Sales. Powell: “Risks to inflation tilted to upside, risks to employment to downside — a challenging situation.” Markets now price in 50 bps easing by year-end, with September cut odds rising from 75% to 90%. USD/CAD tumbles over 0.49% during the North American session…
Speaking on Saturday, Lagarde hailed Europe’s labor market for withstanding inflation and aggressive rate hikes, with jobs up 4.1% since 2021. She said disinflation has come at “remarkably low cost” to employment, though warned the unusual mix of supportive forces may not last. – European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said Europe’s labor market has held up far better…
NZD/USD is up nearly 0.85% on Friday after briefly touching 0.5800, its lowest level since April 11. Powell balanced tariff-driven inflation risks with labor market weakness, signaling monetary policy recalibration. Markets price in a 90% probability of a September rate cut, up from 70% earlier in the day. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) strengthens against the US Dollar (USD)…
The U.K. CPI report printed stronger than expected results, further dampening expectations of additional BOE easing anytime soon. Meanwhile, market sentiment mostly aligned with risk-off flows, even as other major catalysts sparked extra volatility throughout the week. Let’s examine which pairs from our watchlist capitalized on this environment of pound strength and less dovish BOE expectations. This…
Inflation Headline PCE inflation rose 2.6% y/y in July; core PCE up 2.9%. Goods prices rose 1.1%, reversing declines from 2024. Housing services inflation continues to trend lower; nonhousing services remain slightly above levels historically consistent with 2%. Tariffs are visibly pushing up prices; effects expected to accumulate in coming months. Base case: tariff-driven price increases are short-lived, one-time…
United States Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count: 411 vs previous 412
