The structural rally in the S&P 500 from the 3492 cyclical panic low created a multi-year impulse that still remains intact. The first impulse leg pushed aggressively toward 6165, completing a wave consistent with a re-leveraging phase reinforced by liquidity expansion, narrowing volatility, and a notable shift in institutional COT positioning. The subsequent retracement toward 4842 which also aligns with January 4th, 2020,…
Summary: Australia’s manufacturing sector remained in expansion in December, with the PMI holding at 51.6 for a second straight month. New orders and output continued to grow, though momentum eased amid softer foreign demand and tighter competition. Employment rose at the fastest pace in nine months, supported by better candidate availability and rising workloads. Supply conditions deteriorated sharply, with…
South Africa Trade Balance (in Rands) rose from previous 15.58B to 37.7B in November
If you would like to stay in holiday mode again today I’ve good news for you. The vacation mood will carry on for today, Friday, January 2, 2026, with professional activity mainly returning on Monday the 5th. I thought we might have Rating Dog services PMI from China today, after we got official PMIs and Rating Dog Manufacturing PMI…
The US Dollar Index (DXY) remains marginally higher in a quiet year-end session on Wednesday. Still, the Index has given away most of the daily gains, after peaking at 98.44, and trades near 98.25 heading into the US session opening. The DXY, which measures the value of the greenback against a basket of six currencies, is trading about 2%…
There are two big events to watch for in 2026 that will swing the outlook for the loonie, including one that could be just days away: 1) Supreme Court decision on tariffs The Supreme Court has until late June to decide on the legality of US tariffs on Canada but because this was an expedited hearing, we expect a…
Gold stays on the back foot on the last day of 2025 and trades near $4,300, possibly pressured by profit-taking and position adjustments. Nevertheless, XAU/USD remains on track to post gains for December and extend its winning streak into a fifth consecutive month.
The latest CaseShiller housing price index of the 20-largest US cities showed prices up 1.3% year-over-year, just a shade above the +1.2% consensus but a deceleration from the +1.4% y/y reading in September. On a monthly basis, home prices rose 0.3%, beating the +0.1% consensus. The September reading was revised to +0.2% from +0.1%. A separate data set from…
Gold stays on the back foot on the last day of 2025 and trades near $4,300, possibly pressured by profit-taking and position adjustments. Nevertheless, XAU/USD remains on track to post gains for December and extend its winning streak into a fifth consecutive month.
The team at Goldman Sachs is out with their big 2026 Commodities Outlook, and they aren’t mincing words. If you’re looking for a theme to hang your hat on next year, Daan Struyven and the team call it: “Ride the Power Race and Supply Waves.” The gist? The US-China fight for AI and geopolitical dominance is going to light…
