Societe Generale’s Kunal Kundu analyses how the Iran conflict exposes India’s macro vulnerabilities through imported energy dependence and trade route risks. Kundu highlights broad spillovers from higher Oil and gas prices into the consumption basket and external balances. He argues for a calibrated fiscal–monetary mix, with the central bank treating inflation as transitory and targeted government support for households….
The AUDUSD moved below a key swing area between 0.6896 and 0.69088 yesterday, shifting the bias more to the downside. That break gave sellers more control and opened the door for further downside probing. In the early Asian session, the pair extended lower to 0.68707, but buyers stepped in, triggering a snapback rally. That rebound pushed the price back…
DBS Group Research expects Indonesia’s March CPI inflation to stay firm at 4% year-on-year, slightly below February’s 4.8%, but with a faster monthly pace. Analysts highlight the impact of higher energy prices and festive demand, as well as base effects. Policy options include holding retail fuel prices via budget savings, though prolonged conflict could force price hikes or subsidy…
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Australia CFTC AUD NC Net Positions rose from previous $69.1K to $70.9K
Impact of Iran war comes as inflation has been high. There is more risk of faster shift from oil prices into inflation expectations. Risk that series of supply shocks drive up inflation. Economy is not creating a lot of jobs right now. Bending but not breaking is still how to view jobs market. To me it feels like the…
Eurozone CFTC EUR NC Net Positions declined to €9.3K from previous €21.1K
The USDJPY has pushed decisively above the 160.00 level, extending to a high of 160.29. In doing so, the pair briefly moved above a key swing area from 2024 near 160.25, but the break lacked follow-through, with the move only clearing that zone by a handful of pips before stalling. That hesitation at a prior multi-year reference point is…
United States CFTC Oil NC Net Positions rose from previous 218.7K to 233.6K
ECB’s Schnabel is speaking and says: We are facing a massive energy price shock. There is no need to rush into action. We have time to analyze the data. ECB should not be rushed to raise rates. This has a stagflation-lite feel—the energy shock keeps inflation risks alive, but the wait-and-see stance tells you the ECB isn’t in a…
