The Fed meets Wednesday in a week where Powell’s succession uncertainty matters more than the rate decision itself, with gold at all-time highs pricing political risk.

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Prior 51.4 Manufacturing PMI 51.6 vs 50.6 expected Prior 50.6 Composite PMI 53.9 vs 51.5 expected Prior 51.4 Full report here Key Findings: Strongest upturn in UK private sector business activity since April 2024 Comment: Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence: “UK businesses kicked up a gear in January, showing encouraging resilience in the face…

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The Euro (EUR) trades flat against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, as traders show a muted reaction to the latest US economic data. At the time of writing, EUR/USD is hovering near 1.1750 and remains on track for its first weekly gain in three weeks amid sustained weakness in the Greenback. Preliminary S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)…

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FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US Dollar weakened across the board again yesterday despite stronger than expected US jobless claims and lack of any other meaningful catalyst. We got a brief rally in the greenback after Trump announced that he reached a “framework” of a deal for Greenland and that he won’t go ahead with tariffs, but it’s clear that…

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Goldman Sachs is arguing this point from the perspective of central bank subordination risks, and notes that the Swiss franc is the “best placed global FX hedge” for that. But the firm also adds in other factors as to why the currency is a solid pick amid the macroeconomic backdrop that is at play currently. “Our view remains that…

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The British Pound (GBP) continues to outperform the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, with GBP/USD climbing to the 1.3600 handle as the Greenback remains under broad-based selling pressure. At the time of writing, the pair is up nearly 0.73% on the day, marking its highest level since September 18, 2025. Sterling is also drawing support from stronger-than-expected UK economic…

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Headlines: Markets: GBP and AUD lead, NZD lags on the day European equities slightly lower; S&P 500 futures down 0.1% US 10-year yields down 2.2 bps to 4.229% Gold down 0.2% to $4,924.53 WTI crude oil up 1.6% to $60.34 Bitcoin down 0.1% to $89,130 The Bank of Japan (BOJ) decision today went as expected and so did Ueda’s…

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USD/JPY plunges over 300 pips on Friday amid a suspected Japan Ministry of Finance (MoF) ‘rate check’, as excessive Yen (JPY) weakness fuels intervention fears. At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 156.18, down nearly 1.40% on the day, sliding to its lowest level since late December. At the same time, broad-based weakness in the US…

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Mon: Australian Holiday (Australia Day), German Ifo (Jan). Tue: Chinese Industrial Profits (Dec), US Richmond Fed (Jan), US Consumer Confidence (Jan). Wed: Fed Policy Announcement, BoC Policy Announcement, BCB Policy Announcement, Australia CPI (Q4), German GfK (Feb), NZ Trade (Dec). Thu: Riksbank Policy Announcement, CBRT Minutes, EZ Money Supply (Dec). Fri: German Import Prices (Dec), German Unemployment (Jan), German…

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