If you tuned out of President Trump’s State of the Union address late Tuesday thinking it was just political theater, you may have missed some important market signals. Presidential speeches rarely move markets on their own — but this one landed in the middle of a perfect storm: a fresh Supreme Court ruling on tariffs, rising Iran tensions, and…
The U.S. Treasury sold $70 billion of 5 year notes at a high yield of 3.615%: WI level at the time of the auction 3.608% Tail 0.7 basis points v 6 month average up 0.3 basis pointss Bid to cover 2.32X versus 6 month average of 2.36X Dealers 12.8% versus 6 month average of 10.1% Directs 24.7% versus 6…
Nordea’s Torbjörn Isaksson notes that Swedish January CPIF and CPIF ex energy matched flash estimates, but services inflation surprised on the downside. Core services prices fell more than expected, raising concerns for the Riksbank. Nordea sees the details as dovish and is likely to lower its inflation path, while still expecting the Riksbank to hold 1.75%, with a rate…
2026.02.25 2026.02.25 US Dollar Remains Firm After Trump’s Address Before Congress. Forecast as of 25.02.2026 Dmitri Demidenkohttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/dmitri-demidenko/ Donald Trump promised America a new Golden Age. However, in 2025, US economic growth slowed from 2.4% to 2.2%, notching the worst result since 2022 thanks to Trump’s sweeping tariffs. Let’s discuss this topic and make a trading plan for the EUR/USD…
“Recency bias” is a buzzword that gets tossed around frequently in trading circles, but what does it actually mean? Put simply, recency bias is the tendency of traders to place excessive emphasis on what just happened while undervaluing longer-term information. This bias undermines a trader’s market analysis by clouding judgment and compromising decision-making abilities. In forex markets, recency bias typically…
While the market has faced significant headwinds recently, there are growing indicators of a serious potential turnaround in crypto as the following analysis of current trends will show. Despite the fact that it is shaping up to be another rough week for cryptocurrencies, much of the downward pressure stems from specific technical liquidations rather than a fundamental shift in…
ABN AMRO Senior Economist Rogier Quaedvlieg argues that under Kevin Warsh, the Federal Reserve’s ‘conviction-based’ approach and a more dovish reaction function point to lower rates despite a bullish US outlook. The bank expects 75 bps of cuts this year and sees policy converging toward a 3.00% Federal Funds Rate by year-end, even with above-target inflation. Warsh era seen…
2026.02.25 2026.02.25 Yen Slumps As Takaichi’s Speech Reignites Sell-Off. Forecast as of 25.02.2026 Dmitri Demidenkohttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/dmitri-demidenko/ When Sanae Takaichi found the Bank of Japan’s independence beneficial, she emphasized it. However, the slowdown in inflation allowed the prime minister to change her stance. Her toughness towards the BoJ is driving USD/JPY quotes higher. Let’s discuss this topic and make a trading plan….
After weeks of steady declines, bitcoin is taking a quick breather inside a triangle consolidation pattern. Which way could it break out next? Check out these potential upside and downside targets on the 4-hour time frame! Bitcoin (BTC/USD) 4-hour Chart Faster with TradingView Bitcoin has been stuck in a holding pattern for most of February, with price forming lower…
Prior +2.0% Core CPI +2.2% vs +2.2% y/y prelim Prior +2.3% Eurozone Core CPI Y/Y No changes to the preliminary estimates. Compared with December 2025, annual inflation fell in twenty-three Member States, remained stable in one and rose in three. In January 2026, the highest contribution to the annual euro area inflation rate came from services (+1.45%), followed by…
