Attention shifts to Wednesday’s release of the June ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), one of the most closely followed indicators of activity in the US manufacturing sector and an important barometer of the broader economy. Markets expect the headline index to remain unchanged at 54, matching May’s print. That would be the sixth consecutive month with the index…
2026.07.01 2026.07.01 Brent Under Pressure as Supply Surplus Outlook Builds. Forecast as of 01.07.2026 Dmitri Demidenkohttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/dmitri-demidenko/ The IEA and Goldman Sachs expect significant oil market surpluses in 2027. Combined with the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, rising Iranian and Russian exports, and declining demand in Asia and Europe, this factor is pushing Brent prices lower. Let’s analyze the…
Uncle Sam drops the June labor market numbers this week, and word around is that we’ll see another month of job gains. Our Event Guide for the U.S. June Non-Farm Payrolls report points to a print that could keep September rate hike expectations alive and keep the dollar bid. If the data backs that view, USD/CHF and USD/CAD could…
Would need stronger second-round effects to justify further tightening Any inflation surprise before the July meeting more likely on the downside Oil prices could fall below pre-war levels Most oil production capacity should be restored within a quarter if conflict is over One hike could be enough if shock fades before significant second-round effects More than one hike to…
Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid and team note that the S&P 500 ended Q2 strongly, with the index up 0.79% on the day and delivering its best quarter since Q2 2020. Gains were driven by large-cap tech, especially the Mag 7 and the Philly semiconductor index, while the equal-weighted S&P 500 and Russell 2000 lagged. Tech strength narrows S&P 500…
2026.07.01 2026.07.01 US Dollar Pauses Ahead of Warsh’s Speech. Forecast as of 01.07.2026 Dmitri Demidenkohttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/dmitri-demidenko/ Kevin Warsh believes the Federal Reserve should take its cues from the market. Under this approach, rising Treasury yields would imply that the central bank should raise interest rates. However, is such an approach justified? Let’s explore the implications and outline a trading plan…
GBP/NZD is hitting a major resistance zone! Will GBP/NZD stay inside its range? Or will bulls force a bullish breakout?
Gold has not only lost all the gains it made earlier this year, but has now fallen more than 7% below its starting level. Why? The first blow to the precious metal came from a technical factor — specifically, the CME Group’s increase in margin requirements for COMEX gold futures in early February, due to rising market volatility. Higher…
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price remains subdued for the second successive day, trading around $69.70 per barrel during the Asian hours on Wednesday. Crude oil prices decline as supply concerns ease amid potential peace talks in Doha between the US and Iran. Both nations are working toward a lasting resolution to ease tensions in the Strait of Hormuz…
2026.06.30 2026.07.01 Weekly Economic Calendar for 06.07.2026–12.07.2026 Jana Kanehttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/jana-kane/ During the upcoming trading week of July 6–July 12, 2026, market participants will focus on the release of key macroeconomic data from China, Germany, the Eurozone, the US, and Canada, as well as the outcome of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s meeting. Particular attention will be paid to Wednesday’s…
