Prior 49.3 Final Composite PMI 49.3 vs 49.4 prelim Prior 49.7 Key findings: Activity falls to greatest extent for nearly three and a half years New orders decrease for fourth month in a row Input cost inflation eases to its lowest since March Comment: Tim Moore, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “June data confirmed a clear…
Commerzbank highlights that strong Singapore manufacturing and electronics PMIs underpin a constructive growth outlook, with Q2 GDP expected to exceed Q1’s 6% expansion. Against this backdrop, USD/SGD has eased slightly but remains near this year’s highs. The bank expects the pair to consolidate in a defined range rather than trend strongly in the near term. Range-bound outlook for USD/SGD…
2026.07.03 2026.07.03 EUR/USD: Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast for 03.07.26–10.07.26 Alex Geutahttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/alex-geuta/ The article covers the following subjects: Major Takeaways Main scenario: Consider short positions from corrections below the level of 1.1473 with a target of 1.1124–1.0892. A sell signal: the price holds below 1.1473. Stop Loss: above 1.1515, Take Profit: 1.1124–1.0892. Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation above the…
Japan’s largest union group Rengo confirms that the final tally of the annual labour talk results showed that Japanese firms have agreed to raise pay by 5.01% on average this year. This figure is of course watered down from the 5.26% according to preliminary estimates, as is typically the case. That now makes it three years in a row…
UOB’s Quek Ser Leang notes that USD/CNH has seen a slight pickup in downward momentum, but still expects the pair to remain range-bound. The bank now looks for a lower intraday band around 6.7820–6.7940, while its 1–3 week view stays neutral, with USD/CNH likely to trade between 6.7750 and 6.8080. USD/CNH seen holding defined ranges “24-HOUR VIEW: Two days…
2026.07.03 2026.07.03 GBP/USD: Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast for 03.07.26–10.07.26 Alex Geutahttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/alex-geuta/ The article covers the following subjects: Major Takeaways Main scenario: Once the correction is completed, consider short positions below the level of 1.3467 with a target of 1.3050–1.2936. A sell signal: the correction ends and the price holds below 1.3467. Stop Loss: above 1.3510, Take Profit: 1.3050–1.2936….
This time the calendar was right: a payrolls miss and a dovish Warsh sank the dollar. Scenario C was operative, and all five asset directions came in.
Rate hikes by year-end RBNZ: 62 bps (82% probability of rate hike at the next meeting) Fed: 30 bps (83% probability of no change at the next meeting) ECB: 24 bps (72% probability of no change at the next meeting) BoJ: 20 bps (99% probability of no change at the next meeting) BoE: 18 bps (93% probability of no…
The upcoming week will bring a fresh test for major currency pairs as investors return from the US Independence Day holiday and continue to digest weaker US labor market data. The release of the last Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes and Initial Jobless Claims will test the US Dollar’s (USD) resilience. The US Dollar Index (DXY) trades lower…
2026.07.03 2026.07.03 USD/JPY: Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast for 03.07.26–10.07.26 Alex Geutahttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/alex-geuta/ The article covers the following subjects: Major Takeaways Main scenario: Consider long positions from corrections above 159.83 with a target of 165.00–170.00. A buy signal: the price holds above 159.83. Stop Loss: below 159.30, Take Profit: 165.00–170.00. Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation below 159.83 will allow the…
