Will this all be about ‘government-controlled’ Ukraine?

Putin Biden battleship meme

The reality of the on-the-ground situation in Ukraine is that separatists have controlled parts of the country for eight years. They’re recognized from abroad as part of Ukraine but, effectively, they’re not.

A French Presidency source cited by Reuters said measures could be taken if “government-controlled” Ukraine was invaded.

What that really means is that if only non-controlled territory was taken, the measures wouldn’t be taken. That would allow Putin to declare the region as independent and provide security.

Moreover, with the area already controlled by separatists, Russia’s military can waltz in without any fighting.

Ukraine would have the option of counter-attacking, but that’s why thousands of Russian soldiers are on the border. They’re there to deter a counter attack. If they do counter-attack, Russia’s military can crush them.

Ukraine counter-attacking is unlikely.

So then question will be: What repercussions will Russia face? With leaks today suggesting it won’t be SWIFT or energy, Russia basically has the green light.

There’s an entirely-plausible scenario where Russia invades Ukraine this weekend and by Monday it’s risk positive.

WTI
 
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Crude oil is the most popular tradable instrument in the energy sector, offering exposure to global market conditions, geopolitical risk, and economics. The instrument is strategically relied upon and situated in the global economy. Crude oil has proven to be a unique option for traders given volatility and the efficacy of both swing trading and longer-term strategies. Despite its popularity, crude oil is a very complex investing instrument, given the litany of fluctuations in oil prices, risk, and impact of politics stemming from OPEC. Short for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC operates as an intergovernmental organization of 13 countries, helping set and dictate the global oil market.How to Trade Crude Oil Crude oil is most commonly traded as an exchange-traded fund (ETF) or through other instruments with exposure to it. This includes energy stocks, the USD/CAD, and other investing options. Crude oil itself is traded across a duality of markets, including the West Texas Intermediate Crude (WTI) and Brent crude. Brent is the more relied upon index in recent years, while WTI is more heavily traded across futures trading at the time of writing. Other than geopolitical events or decisions by OPEC, crude oil can move due to a variety of different ways.  The most basic is through simple supply and demand, which is affected by global output. Increased industrial output, economic prosperity, and other factors all play a role in crude prices. By extension, recessions, lockdowns, or other stifling factors can also influence crude prices. For example, an oversupply or mitigated demand due to the aforementioned factors would result in lower crude prices. This is due to traders selling crude oil futures or other instruments.  Should demand rise or production plateau, traders will bid increasingly on crude, whereby driving prices up.
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finished the week up 12-cents to $91.88.

On its side, Russia is sending similar kinds of messages, Ukraine is provoking the start of a big war.He said Russia doesn’t want war “but if there is a threat to the lives of citizens of the Russian Federation and compatriots living in the DPR and LPR, then Russia will stand up for them”.

He continued saying that without outside support, Zelensky would hardly have decided to take steps that could lead to the outbreak of war in Europe.

What he means is that without western support, Ukraine wouldn’t even think of counter-attacking. Because it’s counter-attacking that would actually provoke a war.

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