The monitors of the agreed ceasefire in Donbas report widespread fighting and shelling.
The OSCE daily report shows that in the Donetsk Region there were 591 ceasefire violations, including 553 explosions
In the Luhansk Region, there were 975 ceasefire violations, including 860 explosions.
Both are up significantly from a day earlier and dramatically from a week ago.
My base case is that Russia moves in to secure these regions but they may wish to stretch the border or create a buffer zone.