The price of wheat traded up the daily limit all day yesterday. The price was locked near $9.34.
In the new trading day, the contract moved higher reaching $9.60 before it started to rotate back to the downside.
The move to the downside has now taken the price to the down limit level at $8.59. That level is right near its 100 hour moving average at $8.60. The price has traded above that moving average since February 17. The price has traded above the down limit price but only marginally. Sellers are keeping the price against or near that limit down level.
The move from the February 17 low to the high price reached earlier today took the price up 22.12%. Since then, the price is down -10.51% from that high.
The 100 hour MA will be a a key barometer for buyers and sellers going forward. A move below (it might have to wait until Monday’s trading), and the 50% of the move up from the February 3 low come in at $8.50. Move below that level and the 200 hour MA at $8.24 would be targeted.
Conversely, hold the 100 hour MA, and the traders will be looking back toward the broken 38.2% of the same move higher at $8.76. Move above that and we could be back on our way to the upside.