Weekly Market Recap (26-01 March)

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ECB’s Lagarde
(neutral – voter) reaffirmed her patience stance with the usual focus on wage
growth:

  • We are not there yet
    on inflation.
  • We have to get to 2%
    inflation sustainably.
  • ECB must play its
    role in climate transition.
  • There are increasing
    signs of a bottoming-out in growth and some forward-looking indicators
    point to a pick-up later this year.
  • Wage pressures,
    meanwhile, remain strong.
  • The current
    disinflationary process is expected to continue, but the governing council
    needs to be confident that it will lead us sustainably to our 2% target.
  • Labour cost
    increases are partly buffered by profits and are not being fully passed on
    to consumers.
  • We expect inflation
    to continue slowing down, as the impact of past upward shocks fades and
    tight financing conditions help to push down inflation.
  • Our restrictive
    monetary policy stance, the ensuing strong decline in headline inflation,
    and firmly anchored longer-term inflation expectations act as a safeguard
    against sustained wage price spiral.

ECB’s Lagarde

The Japan January
CPI beat expectations although the inflation rates eased from the prior
figures:

  • CPI Y/Y 2.2% vs. 2.6%
    prior.
  • Core CPI Y/Y 2.0% vs.
    1.8% expected and 2.3% prior.
  • Core-Core CPI Y/Y 3.5% vs. 3.7% prior.

Japan Core-Core CPI YoY

Fed’s Schmid (hawk
– non voter) can be put on the top of the FOMC hawks after his comments
although he’s not a voting member this year:

  • No need to pre-emptively
    adjust the stance of policy.
  • Fed should be
    patient, wait for convincing evidence that inflation fight has been won.
  • In ‘no hurry’ to
    halt the ongoing reduction in size of Fed’s balance sheet.
  • We are not out of
    the woods yet on ‘too high’ inflation.
  • How much further Fed
    can shrink its balance sheet ‘an open question’.
  • Don’t favour ‘overly
    cautious’ approach to balance sheet runoff; some interest-rate volatility
    should be tolerated.
  • Fed should minimize
    its footprint in the financial system, particularly as relates to Fed’s
    balance sheet.
  • Returning inflation
    to 2% will likely require restoring balance in labour markets, moderating
    wage growth.
  • Reducing Fed’s
    balance sheet should be a priority once crisis has passed.
  • Large Fed balance
    sheet can create unintended consequences, including on bank lending,
    liquidity.
  • January CPI
    inflation data argues for caution.
  • Large Fed balance
    sheet can create asset-price distortions.
  • Bank regulators
    should take tailored approach.
  • Silicon Valley Bank
    was a bit of a canary in a coal mine.
  • Fed’s Discount
    Window should be part of a bank’s ‘strategic stack’ funding.
  • it would be a
    mistake to consider cryptocurrency as a currency.

Fed’s Schmid

The US January Durable
Goods Orders missed expectations:

  • Durable Goods Orders
    M/M -6.1% vs. -4.5% expected and -0.3% prior (revised from 0.0%).
  • Non-defense capital
    goods orders ex-air M/M 0.1% vs. 0.1% expected and -0.6% prior (revised
    from 0.3%).
  • Ex transport M/M
    -0.3% vs. 0.2% expected.
  • Ex defense M/M -7.3% vs. 0.5% prior.
  • Shipments M/M -0.9%.

US Durable Goods Orders MoM

BoE’s Ramsden (neutral –
voter) supports the current patient approach as he would like to see more
evidence that inflation is going back to their 2% target sustainably.

  • Key indicators of
    inflation persistence remain elevated.
  • I support the
    more-balanced outlook on risks to inflation set out in the MPC’s latest
    forecast.
  • I am looking for
    more evidence about how entrenched this persistence will be and therefore
    about how long the current level of bank rate will need to be maintained.

BoE’s Ramsden

The US February Consumer Confidence missed expectations
by a big margin with negative revisions to the prior readings:

  • Consumer Confidence
    106.7 vs. 115.0 expected and 110.9 prior (revised from 114.8).
  • Present situation
    index 147.2 vs.154.9 prior (revised from 161.3).
  • Expectations 79.8 vs.
    81.5 prior (revised from 83.8).
  • 1 year Inflation 5.2% vs. 5.2% prior.
  • Jobs hard-to-get 13.5%
    vs. 11.0% prior (revised from 9.8%).

“The decline in consumer
confidence in February interrupted a three-month rise, reflecting persistent
uncertainty about the US economy,” said Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The
Conference Board. “The drop in confidence was broad-based, affecting all income
groups except households earning less than $15,000 and those earning more than
$125,000. Confidence deteriorated for consumers under the age of 35 and those
55 and over, whereas it improved slightly for those aged 35 to 54.”

US Consumer Confidence

Fed’s Bowman (hawk – voter) maintains her patient
stance with no fear of raising rates further if inflation progress were to
stall:

  • Will remain cautious
    on monetary policy.
  • If inflation moves
    sustainably to 2% goal, it will eventually be appropriate to cut interest
    rates; not yet there.
  • Reducing policy rate
    too soon could result in need for future rate hikes.
  • She remains willing
    to raise policy rate if inflation progress stalls or reverses.
  • Latest inflation
    data suggests slower progress on inflation.
  • Economic activity
    and consumer spending are strong, labour market ‘tight’.

Fed’s Bowman

Reuters reported that OPEC+ may consider extending
their voluntary output cuts into Q2 or even into year-end.

OPEC

The Australian January Monthly CPI missed
expectations:

  • CPI Y/Y 3.4% vs.
    3.6% expected and 3.4% prior.
  • Trimmed Mean CPI Y/Y
    3.8% vs. 4.0%.

Australia Monthly CPI YoY

The RBNZ left the OCR unchanged at 5.5% and dropped
the tightening bias:

RBNZ forecasts:

  • Sees official cash
    rate at 5.59% in June 2024 (prior 5.67%).
  • Sees official cash
    rate at 5.47% in March 2025 (prior 5.56%).
  • Sees twi nzd at
    around 71.5% in March 2025 (prior 70.7%).
  • Sees annual CPI 2.6%
    by March 2025 (prior 2.4%).
  • Sees official cash
    rate at 5.33% in June 2025 (prior 5.42%).
  • Sees official cash
    rate at 3.16% in March 2027.

Statement:

  • The OCR needs to
    remain at a restrictive level for a sustained period.
  • The New Zealand
    economy has evolved broadly as anticipated by the committee.
  • The committee
    remains confident that the current level of the OCR is restricting demand.
  • Core inflation and
    most measures of inflation expectations have declined, and the risks to
    the inflation outlook have become more balanced.
  • However, headline
    inflation remains above the 1 to 3 percent target band, limiting the
    committee’s ability to tolerate upside inflation surprises.
  • A sustained decline
    in capacity pressures in the New Zealand economy is required to ensure
    that headline inflation returns to the 1 to 3 percent target.
  • With high
    immigration and weaker demand growth, capacity constraints in the New
    Zealand labour market have eased.

From
the minutes to the meeting
:

  • Ongoing restrictive
    monetary policy settings are necessary to guard against the risk of a rise
    in inflation expectations.
  • Capacity pressures
    have eased significantly over the past year.
  • The committee agreed
    that interest rates need to remain at a restrictive level for a sustained
    period of time.
  • The committee noted
    that aggregate demand is now better matched with the supply capacity of
    the economy.
  • The starting point
    for capacity pressures in the New Zealand economy is only slightly lower
    than previously assumed.
  • The committee is
    conscious that the economy has limited capacity to absorb further upside
    inflation surprises.
  • Recent drops in core
    inflation and business inflation expectations are encouraging, but they
    remain above the 2 percent mid-point of the committee’s target band.

RBNZ

Moving on to the Governor Orr’s Press Conference:

  • Central banks may
    have to hold rates higher than markets expect.
  • New Zealand economy
    has evolved ‘broadly’ as expected.
  • Discussed rate hike,
    but strong consensus that rates were sufficient.
  • Domestic price
    pressures are easing as expected.
  • Comforting to see
    inflation expectations decline.
  • Data has given us
    more confidence in the outlook than in November.
  • We are in a
    disinflation period.
  • Economy faces a
    soft-landing scenario.

RBNZ Orr

ECB’s Kazimir (hawk – non voter in March) is clearly
signalling a rate cut in June, all else being equal:

  • Market’s rate cut
    pricing now “more realistic”.
  • Pleased with recent
    shift in expectations.
  • Headline
    disinflation is going quicker than expected but core prices still remain
    uncertain.
  • Prefers June rate
    cut, then “smooth and steady cycle of policy easing”.

ECB’s Kazimir

The 2nd reading for the US Q4 2023 GDP
missed slightly expectations with higher figures for consumer spending and
inflation:

  • US Q4 2023 GDP 3.2%
    vs. 3.3% expected.

Details:

  • Consumer spending 3.0% vs. 2.8% advance.
  • Consumer spending on
    durables 3.2% vs. 4.6% advance.
  • GDP final sales 3.5%
    vs. 3.2% advance.
  • GDP deflator 1.7% vs. 1.5% advance.
  • Core PCE 2.1% vs.
    2.0% advance.
  • Business investment 0.9% vs. 2.1% advance.

US GDP

Fed’s Collins (neutral – non voter) echoed her
colleagues in supporting a patient stance as they gather more information:

  • Repeats it will
    likely become appropriate to begin easing policy later this year.
  • Recent economic data
    highlight that progress toward the Fed’s goals could continue to be bumpy.
  • More time is needed
    to discern if the economy is sustainably on the path to price stability
    and a healthy labour market.
  • States the need to
    see more evidence that the disinflationary process will continue before
    starting to carefully normalize policy.
  • Expecting all of the
    data to speak uniformly is too high a bar; shouldn’t overreact to
    individual data readings.
  • The return to 2%
    will likely require demand growing at a more moderate pace this year.
  • Wants to see
    continued evidence that wage growth is not contributing to inflationary
    pressures.
  • In assessing
    inflation progress, will look for inflation expectations remaining well
    anchored and an orderly moderation in labour demand.
  • Wants to see
    continued declines in housing inflation and non-shelter services
    inflation.
  • The threat of
    inflation remaining above 2% has receded.
  • I see risks is more
    balanced between cutting too early and too late.
  • We should be taking
    time on policy.
  • We expect we will
    see more of a decline in reserves, and will be paying attention to what
    point it might be appropriate to revisit QT.
  • Too early to tell if
    we are extracting the right signal from housing inflation data.

Fed’s Collins

Fed’s Williams (neutral – voter) reiterated the
patient approach as the Fed will be guided by the incoming economic data:

  • Still some ways to
    go before hitting the 2% inflation target.
  • Fully committed to achieving
    the Fed’s 2% inflation target.
  • Will let incoming
    economic data determine the monetary policy path.
  • Sees likely uneven
    path back to 2% inflation.
  • Inflation pressures
    have fallen a lot amid broad-based improvement.
  • Risks to outlook
    exist on up and down sides.
  • Inflation to hit
    2%-2.25% this year, 2% in 2025.
  • Growth at 1.5% this
    year, unemployment up to around 4%.
  • Economy, job market
    strong, imbalances waning.
  • Current 3.7%
    unemployment rate around long-term level.
  • Risks to Fed job,
    inflation mandates moving into better balance.
  • Fed likely to cut
    rates later this year.
  • Will watch data to
    drive decision over cutting rates.
  • Fed has time to take
    in data before cutting rates.
  • Pandemic aftermath
    still affecting economy, but optimistic about outlook.
  • 3 interest-rate cuts
    in 2024 reasonable for US central bank officials to debate.
  • Data will drive one
    federal cut rates.
  • Current US economy
    is similar to where it was during December policy meeting.
  • It is unclear what
    impact potential US government shutdown would have on economy.

Fed’s Williams

Fed’s Bostic (hawk – voter) repeated the comments from
other members as they all support a patient approach:

  • There is still work
    to do on inflation.
  • Has not declared
    victory just yet.
  • Is comfortable being
    patient on policy.
  • Will not be a fast march
    to 2% inflation.

Fed’s Bostic

ECB’s Nagel (hawk – voter) wants to see wage growth to
moderate before supporting rate cuts:

  • It would be fatal if
    ECB cut rates too early only for inflation to rebound.
  • ECB needs
    confirmation that wage growth is moderating to a level that will let
    inflation fall back to target in 2025.

ECB’s Nagel

BoE’s Mann (hawk – voter) blamed consumers for the
slow progress on inflation:

  • Lack of consumer
    discipline complicates policy.
  • BoE is struggling to
    bring inflation back to target because price rises are increasingly driven
    by people who are immune to the pressures of higher interest rates.
  • There is lack of
    consumer discipline to rein in business’s pricing power in areas of the
    services sector where prices were often sticky.

BoE’s Mann

The Japanese January Industrial Production missed
expectations:

  • Industrial
    Production Y/Y -1.5% vs. -0.7% prior.
  • Industrial
    Production M/M -7.5% vs. -7.3% expected and 1.4% prior.

Japan Industrial Production YoY

The Japanese January Retail Sales came in line with
expectations:

  • Retail Sales Y/Y
    2.3% vs. 2.3% expected and 2.4% prior (revised from 2.1%).
  • Retail Sales M/M
    0.8% vs. -2.9% prior.

Japan Retail Sales YoY

BoJ’s Takata delivered
some hawkish comments that sent the Yen higher across the board:

  • Momentum is rising
    in spring wage talks.
  • Many companies are
    offering higher-than-2023 wage hikes.
  • Achievement of 2%
    inflation target is becoming in sight despite uncertainty of economic
    outlook.
  • Japan’s economy is
    in inflection point of changing ‘norm’ that people think wages, prices are
    not rising.
  • Exit measures should
    include abandoning yield curve control framework, ending negative rates,
    overshoot commitment.
  • I would call for a
    gear shift in policy, but not one that is going backwards.
  • Moderate recovery
    trend intact despite slowdown in capex, consumption.
  • Monetary policy
    needs to remain consistent with the real economy, financial environment.
  • Have not made up
    mind yet on monetary policy decision.
  • Wage hikes are
    broadening stronger than last year.
  • Need to watch outcome
    of spring wage talks after mid-March.
  • Not thinking of
    raising rates one after another.
  • Don’t want to single
    out any policy step in mentioning “nimble responses”.
  • Gradual steps will
    be needed amid mixed circumstances surrounding smaller firms.
  • We need to keep some
    easing measures to some extent.
  • But important for
    exit strategy to not be too complicating.

BoJ’s Takata

The Switzerland Q4 2023
GDP beat expectations:

  • Q4 2023 GDP Q/Q 0.3% vs.
    0.1% expected and 0.3% prior.

Switzerland GDP

The US Jobless Claims
missed expectations:

  • Initial Claims 215K
    vs. 210K expected and 202K prior (revised from 201K).
  • Continuing Claims
    1905K vs. 1874K expected and 1860K prior (revised from 1862K).

US Jobless Claims

The US January PCE came
in line with expectations:

  • PCE Y/Y 2.4% vs.
    2.4% expected and 2.6% prior.
  • PCE M/M 0.3% vs.
    0.3% expected and 0.1% prior.
  • Core PCE Y/Y 2.8%
    vs. 2.8% expected and 2.9% prior.
  • Core PCE M/M 0.4%
    vs. 0.4% expected and 0.1% prior (revised from 0.2%).

Consumer
spending and consumer income for January
:

  • Personal income 1.0%
    versus 0.4%. Prior month 0.3%.
  • Personal spending
    0.2% versus 0.2% expected. Prior month 0.7%
  • Real personal
    spending -0.1% vs 0.6% last month revised from 0.5%).

US Core PCE YoY

The Canadian Q4 2023 GDP
beat expectations:

  • Q4 GDP Q/Q 0.3% vs. ­-0.1%
    prior (revised from -0.3%).
  • Annualised GDP Q/Q
    1.0% vs. 0.8% expected and -0.5% prior (revised from -1.1%).
  • December GDP M/M
    0.0% vs. 0.2% expected and 0.2% prior.

Canada GDP

Fed’s Goolsbee (dove –
non voter) continues to see progress in disinflation:

  • We’ve had very
    substantial progress over a long-term basis on inflation.
  • Even with January
    PCE data showing a month of rebound, should be careful to extrapolate.
  • There is element of
    truth that disinflation of 2023 was supply chain repair.
  • Should be careful
    with the argument that supply change is now fixed.
  • Should not expect
    more benefit in 2024.
  • Impact on supply
    shock on inflation takes time.
  • Suggests benefits of
    supply chain disinflation are still to come.
  • Lags on supply shock
    from labour on inflation are probably long.
  • As of labour supply
    shocks probably have a longer lasting effect on inflation then supply
    chain shocks.
  • If substantial
    productivity growth continues, that would have an impact on monetary
    policy.
  • What I’m watching
    the most is why hasn’t housing inflation improved more than it has.
  • There is a risk of
    betting against the Fed being committed on doing what it says.
  • Rates are pretty restrictive.
  • I still think the
    question is how long we want to remain in this restrictive.
  • External shocks are
    the things I worry about most.
  • 2023 was a golden year.
  • If golden path is to
    continue in 2024, would rely on lagged effect of the past positive supply
    shocks.
  • If you stay quite
    restrictive, you will eventually have to think about impact to employment.

Fed’s Goolsbee

Fed’s Bostic (hawk –
voter)

  • Inflation came down
    much faster than expected.
  • The last inflation
    number shows that inflation’s decline will be a bumpy one.
  • Fed must stay
    vigilant and intensive.
  • Over the long arc inflation
    is still coming down.
  • It is probably
    appropriate to reduce the fed funds policy rate in the summertime.
  • Economic data will
    be the guide for the Fed on when rate cards are made.
  • Degree of risk
    exposure in the nonbanking sector worries me.
  • Calls the US banking
    sector sound and strong.
  • Range of risks that
    has to think about has become more complex.
  • Geopolitical risks
    are currently high.
  • I expect things are
    going to be bumpy on inflation.
  • It is useful to use
    a range of different approaches to assess inflation.

Fed’s Bostic

Fed’s Daly (neutral –
voter) repeated that the current policy stance is appropriate:

  • Fed policy is in a
    good place.
  • Fed can cut rates if
    needed.
  • The Fed wants to
    avoid holding rates all the way to 2% inflation.
  • There is no imminent
    risk of the economy faltering.
  • If Fed were to cut
    too quickly, inflation can get stuck.
  • Risks of persistent
    inflation and economic downturn are even.

Fed’s Daly

Fed’s Mester (hawk –
voter) continues to support the patient stance guided by incoming economic
data:

  • January PCE data was
    not too surprising.
  • January PCE reading
    does not change view that inflation is going downward.
  • There is a little
    more work for the Fed to do on inflation.
  • It’s all about risk
    management until we get to 2% inflation goal.
  • Monetary policy is
    restrictive, demand should cool.
  • We can’t rely on
    pace of disinflation last year to continue this year.
  • Demand will
    moderate, growth this year will not be as strong as last year.
  • Does not want to
    focus on timing of the rate cut but the data.
  • Expects some
    slowdown in employment growth.
  • That slowing in
    employment growth is what we need to see to ease policy.
  • We do need to be
    more confident that inflation is on that downward path.
  • Baseline is we will
    see moderation in the labour market, but it will still healthy
    .
  • Need to see
    continued disinflation.
  • Baseline forecast of
    three rate cuts still seems about right.
  • Economy and monetary
    policy is in a good spot.

Fed’s Mester

BoJ’s Ueda basically
retracted what Takata said yesterday as he cast doubt on the achievement of the
2% target and wasn’t upbeat on wage negotiations:

  • The recent recession
    in Japan follows previous strong quarters.
  • Japan’s economy will
    continue recovering gradually.
  • Japan firms’ capex
    plan is strong, which likely to be implemented eventually.
  • Japan’s economy not
    yet in situation where sustained achievement of 2% inflation can be
    foreseen.
  • In judging whether
    sustained achievement of 2% inflation target can be foreseen, this
    year’s annual wage negotiation outcome is key.
  • Compared with when
    we announced our January report, labour unions have demanded wage growth
    higher than last year, big firms seem keen to hike wages.
  • Want to look at
    collective outcome of wage talks, as well as hearings we conduct on firms.

BoJ Governor Ueda

RBNZ Hawkesby reaffirmed
the central bank patient stance:

  • Restrictive policy
    needed to ensure inflation expectations anchor at 2%.
  • Policy is going to
    stay restrictive for some time yet.
  • Policy will need to
    stay restrictive even when the output gap is negative.
  • We think the output
    gap now is around zero, if not a bit negative.
  • We don’t have a lot
    of room to manoeuvre when it comes to future inflation shocks.
  • We are on the right
    path with inflation, have to hold our course.
  • Not in a mindset to
    cut rates now, will be cutting sometime down the track.

RBNZ Hawkesby

The Japanese Unemployment
Rate came in line with expectations:

  • Unemployment rate
    2.4% vs. 2.4% expected and 2.4% prior.

Japan Unemployment Rate

RBNZ Governor Orr
reaffirmed the central bank’s patient stance:

  • Economy is evolving
    as anticipated.
  • Inflation expectations have fallen.
  • Inflation is still
    too high but is falling.
  • Monetary policy
    needs to stay restrictive for some time.
  • Expect to begin
    normalising policy in 2025.
  • Expect economic
    growth to begin picking up in 2024.

RBNZ Governor Orr

Fed’s Williams (neutral –
voter) reiterated that he sees progress on inflation and rate cuts this year:

  • Says 2023 was an
    amazing year for the economy.
  • Current business
    cycle is not a normal one.
  • Much of what
    happened in the economy is a reversal of the pandemic hit.
  • The resilience of
    the US economy is remarkable.
  • The Federal Reserve
    is dealing a strong economy, adding lots of jobs.
  • Wants inflation back
    to 2% and sees progress on that.
  • I do expect us to
    cut interest rates later this year.
  • Doesn’t see sense of
    urgency to cut rates.
  • Rate hike is not
    part of base case.
  • Current outlook
    doesn’t suggest another hike is needed.

Fed’s Williams

The Chinese February PMIs
showed Manufacturing remaining in contraction and Services improving further:

  • Manufacturing PMI
    49.1 vs. 49.1 expected and 49.2 prior.
  • Services PMI 51.4
    vs. 50.9 expected and 50.7 prior.

China Manufacturing PMI

The Chinese February Caixin
Manufacturing PMI beat expectations:

  • Caixin Manufacturing
    PMI 50.9 vs. 50.6 expected and 50.8 prior.

Caixin PMI summary:

  • Production and new
    orders grew faster in February.
  • New export business
    expanded for the second consecutive month due to an improvement in
    underlying global demand conditions.
  • Inventories of
    purchased items increased at the fastest pace since late-2020.
  • Stocks of finished
    items fell for the first time since June last year.
  • Employment fell for
    the sixth successive month.
  • Factory gate prices
    down for the second month, with the rate of discounting being the quickest
    since July 2023.

China Caixin Manufacturing PMI

The Switzerland February
Manufacturing PMI missed expectations:

  • Manufacturing PMI 44.0
    vs. 44.4 expected and 43.1 prior.

Switzerland Manufacturing PMI

The Eurozone February CPI
beat expectations:

  • CPI Y/Y 2.6% vs.
    2.5% expected and 2.8% prior.
  • Core CPI Y/Y 3.1% vs.
    2.9% expected and 3.3% prior.

Eurozone Core CPI YoY

The Eurozone Unemployment
Rate remained unchanged at 6.4%.

Eurozone Unemployment Rate

Fed’s Barkin (hawk –
voter) seems to be getting a bit uncomfortable as he even questioned rate cuts
this year:

  • Yesterday was a high
    inflation report.
  • We’re still a world
    of prices increasing at higher levels.
  • Says he tried to not
    take too much out of January economic figures in general.
  • PCE data yesterday
    is consistent with the story he is hearing with regards to services
    inflation.
  • Inflation is coming
    down, but we have to see how much more has to happen to get it to 2%.
  • I am not in a hurry
    to cut rates.
  • I still see wage and
    inflation pressures.
  • We’ll see if there
    are rate cuts this year.
  • It all depends on
    progress on inflation.
  • Economy will tell us
    what to do on policy.

Fed’s Barkin

BoE’s Pill (neutral –
voter) stressed that even if they cut monetary policy will remain restrictive:

  • My baseline is that
    the time for cutting rates is some ways off.
  • I need to see more
    compelling evidence that the underlying persistent component of UK CPI
    inflation is being squeezed down.
  • Maintaining
    restrictiveness does not necessarily mean leaving bank rate unchanged.
  • Real interest rates
    will rise as inflation and short-term inflation expectations ease.
  • Monetary policy
    stance remains restrictive even after a cut.

BoE’s Pill

The Canadian
Manufacturing PMI improved further in February:

  • Manufacturing PMI 49.7
    vs. 48.3 prior.

Canada Manufacturing PMI

The US February ISM
Manufacturing PMI surprisingly missed expectations:

  • ISM Manufacturing
    PMI 47.8 vs. 49.5 expected and 49.1 prior.

Details:

  • Prices paid 52.5 vs. 52.9 prior.
  • Employment 45.9 vs. 47.1 prior.
  • New orders 49.2 vs. 52.5 prior.
  • Inventories 45.3 vs. 46.2 prior.
  • Production 48.4 vs. 50.4 prior.

US ISM Manufacturing PMI

The
highlights for next week will be
:

  • Monday: Switzerland CPI.
  • Tuesday: Tokyo CPI, China Caixin
    Services PMI, Eurozone PPI, US ISM Services PMI.
  • Wednesday: Australia GDP, Eurozone
    Retail Sales, US ADP, BoC Policy Decision, US Job Openings, Fed Chair Powell
    Testimony.
  • Thursday: Japan Wage data,
    Switzerland Unemployment Rate, ECB Policy Decision, US Jobless Claims, Fed
    Chair Powell Testimony.
  • Friday: US NFP, Canada Labour
    Market report.

That’s all folks. Have a
nice weekend.

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