The USDJPY is still alive, but just barely. Looking at the high to low trading range for the day, the pair has only mustered 21 pips from the low to high. That compares to the 22 day average (month of trading) of 64 pips (only 32% of the average). That is bad, but the good news is there is room to roam in the North American session if if can get a shove (with momentum – stocks or geopolitical headlines).
Looking at the hourly chart, the lows today have been finding support against its 100 hour moving average. That moving average is currently at 114.98. Move below with momentum, and the room to roam is to the downside with the next target area between 114.69 an 114.782. Below that and traders would start to target the low from yesterday’s trade at 114.484.
On the topside, the pair has tried life above a short term swing area at the 115.113 level, but failed(see red numbered circles). Nevertheless move above that level, with some momentum, and traders would look to target the 200 hour moving average at 115.249. The price last traded above that 200moving average on February 16. It re-tested the moving average on February 17 only to find sellers near it. They subsequently pushed the price down toward the recent cycle low from yesterday’s trade at 114.484.
For now, the pair barely has a heartbeat, but traders are doing all it can to keep the patient alive until it can be shocked with a move in the direction of the break.