Main scenario: consider long positions from corrections above the level of 1.2512 with a target of 1.2773 – 1.2892.
Alternative scenario: breakout and consolidation below the level of 1.2512 will allow the pair to continue declining to the levels of 1.2285 – 1.2150.
Analysis: a descending correction appears to have formed as the fourth wave 4 of larger degree on the daily chart, with wave (С) of 4 completed and an ascending wave 5 unfolding inside. On the H4 chart, wave 1 of (1) of 5 is formed, a downward correction is completed in the form of wave 2 of (1) of 5, and the third wave 3 of (1) has started developing. Apparently, the first counter-trend wave of smaller degree i of 3 is developing on the H1 chart, with a local correction unfolding as wave (iv) of i inside. If the presumption is correct, the pair will continue to rise to the levels of 1.2773 – 1.2892 after the correction is completed. The level of 1.2512 is critical in this scenario as its breakout will enable the pair to continue declining to the levels of 1.2285 – 1.2150.
Price chart of USDCAD in real time mode
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