Main scenario: consider long positions from corrections above the level of 1.2610 with a target of 1.2950 – 1.3010.
Alternative scenario: breakout and consolidation below the level of 1.2610 will allow the pair to continue declining to the levels of 1.2493 – 1.2384.
Analysis: A descending correction appears to have formed as the fourth wave 4 of larger degree on the daily chart, with wave (С) of 4 completed and an ascending wave 5 unfolding inside. A downward correction is completed in the form of wave 2 of (1) of 5 and the third wave 3 of (1) has started developing on the H4 chart. Apparently, the first counter-trend wave of smaller degree i of 3 is developing on the H1 chart, with the third wave (iii) of i and a corrective wave (iv) of i completed inside. If the presumption is correct, the pair will continue to rise to the levels of 1.2950 – 1.3010. The level of 1.2610 is critical in this scenario as its breakout will enable the pair to continue declining to the levels of 1.2493 – 1.2384.
Price chart of USDCAD in real time mode
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