USDCAD continues its ups and downs and is stuck in the mud


USDCAD is stuck in the mud


Read this Term remains stuck in the mud and the tires are going deeper and deeper. The low to high trading range is only 45 pips that is well below the 81 pip trading range over the last 22 trading days.

The low today tested the low from yesterday at 1.2673 (the low reached 1.26726). The inability to push lower, and the overall better bid in the USD, has led to the pair moving back higher and a retest of the Asian session high at 1.27167. The North American high reached 1.27179 – just above the Asian high. The move higher has gotten back above the near converged 100/200 hour MAs near 1.2707 to 1.2710. The current price is just above those levels at 1.2713.

What next?

Get out of the mud!

The last three trading days has seen a high of 1.2733 and a low of 1.26623 or 71 pips in three days. The low level stalled at the 38.2% of the move up from the January 19 low) . The high yesterday extended above the 100 hour MA but failed quickly.

If the price can stay above the MAs (blue and green lines), that would be the best case scenario for a potential break out of the 3- day mud pit.

That would be good news.

The not so good news is that getting out of THAT mud pit, does not get the pair out of a bigger mud pit.

Over the last 17 trading days, the price has traded most of the time between 1.26496 and 1.27958 (146 pips over). There was a failed extension below the lowest level last week on ECB volatility. However, that only increased the low to high trading range over the greater than 3 week range to 161 pips.

So getting out of the smaller 3 day mud pit, but staying in another 17 day pit is not great, but at least it would be some movement/some freedom

As type, the USDCAD is trading up to 1.2626 That is getting closer to the high from yesterday at 1.2733.



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