The price of crude oil is higher and the USDCAD is lower on the day. However, it is also off it’s low for the day.
The catalyst for the bounce?
Looking at the hourly chart, the low for the day tested the converged 100/200 hour MAs near 1.2718/1.2720. The low for the day reached 1.2717 and has bounced.
The price is trading at 1.27466 as I type and in the process is starting to test a swing area between 1.2747 to 1.2752.
Admittedly both on Friday, Monday and again today, the price moved above that swing area and stalled ahead of the second lowest swing high from last week’s trading near 1.2774.
Nevertheless, getting back above the area should be more positive technically with the highs over the last 19 trading days (see green numbered circles) as the key ceiling to get to and through.
Overall, the USDCAD remains in a narrow up and down trading range over the last 19 trading days (near four weeks – see red box in the chart above). The 100 and 200 hour moving averages are near the middle of that trading range. Holding above gives more of a positive bias. Having said that, at some point, the pair needs to get out of the up and down trading range defined by the green numbered circles above, and the red numbered circles below.
Hope springs eternal now for the buyers as the holding of the moving averages gives the buyers the bias.