Despite the rally in oil, USD/CAD is pushing higher through 1.2750 as we imminently wait for Biden to speak. The rise coincides with the fall in the S&P 500 to a session low, down 55 points to 4293.
The US has ramped up its rhetoric today, talking about an ‘invasion’ from Russia. Since the start of the tensions, the US has been pushing hardest — in part because it has less to lose from sanctions. And politically, Biden has much more to gain from being harsh rather than soft.