• Prior was +528K (revised to 526K)
  • Two month net revisions -108K
  • Estimates ranged from +75K to +450K
  • Unemployment rate 3.7% vs 3.5% expected
  • Prior unemployment rate 3.5%
  • Participation rate 62.4% vs 62.1% prior (was 63.4% pre-pandemic)
  • U6 underemployment rate 7.0% vs 6.7% prior
  • Average hourly earnings +0.3% m/m vs +0.4% expected (prior +0.5%)
  • Average weekly hours 34.5 vs 34.6 expected
  • Change in private payrolls 308K vs +300K expected
  • Change in manufacturing payrolls +22K vs +20K expected
  • Household survey +440K vs +179K prior

The implied odds of a 75 bps hike at the Sept 21 FOMC meeting were at 75% ahead of the data. USD/JPY was trading at 140.47 ahead of the numbers, which is the highest since 1998. Earlier today Japan chief cabinet secretary Matsuno said they are watching FX moves with a sense of urgency, which is a hint that intervention is on the table.

The US dollar moved down moderately after the data with the market focused on the dip on wage growth and rise in unemployment. I’m a bit surprised by the reaction because this is generally good news for the economy and if I was an FOMC member, this would make me feel a bit more comfortable about hiking by 75 bps, though the implied probability is still at 75.0%.

US 2-year yuields are down 2-3 bps on the data and stock futures have moved up.