ING Research has adopted a bullish bias on EUR/CHF into the ECB and the SNB March policy meetings.
“The hawkish turn in the ECB has lifted EUR/CHF off its lows
and presents one of the best chances for EUR/CHF to turn higher since
2007/08. We assume that the SNB, with forecast inflation
dropping back to 0.6/0.8% in 2023/24, would still prefer a weaker CHF.
Accordingly, it would be no surprise for the SNB to lag the ECB
tightening cycle by 12 months or so. The big ECB meeting is 10
March, while the quarterly Swiss National Bank meeting is not until 24
March – EUR/CHF could be at 1.07 then,” ING notes.
“We do not really subscribe to the view that the SNB wants a stronger
CHF to insulate against higher energy prices. Having fought CHF
strength for so long, it should now let CHF soften,” ING adds.
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