The EUR is the strongest and the AUD is the weakest as the NA session begins

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The EUR is the strongest and the AUD is the weakest as the North American session begins. The USD is mostly higher to start the day as a FOMC starts its two day meeting before announcing its interest rate decision tomorrow at 2 PM ET. Expectations are for no change in rates, but market participants will be interested if the Fed is closer or farther away from a rate cut. The Bank of England will announce its rate decision on Thursday at 7 AM ET

This morning ECB policymaker Boris Vujčić discussed the potential timing and approach to interest rate adjustments within the Eurozone. He mentioned that whether a rate cut occurs in April or June does not present a significant difference, suggesting a flexible stance on the timing of monetary policy adjustments. Vujčić expressed a preference for rate cuts by 25 basis points when they occur but also cautioned that such cuts are not guaranteed at every meeting, indicating that pauses in rate adjustments are possible. This approach reflects a response to the latest GDP data, which supports the view that the Eurozone economy is on track for a soft landing scenario. Vujčić’s comments highlight the ECB’s careful consideration of economic indicators in its decision-making process regarding interest rates, aiming to balance growth with inflation control.

The US calendar today includes data on job openings (JOLTS job opening report). On Friday, the US employment report will be released expectations of non-farm payroll are estimated at 187K with an unemployment rate of 3.8% versus 3.7% last month. The calendar today shows:

In the US stock market, the major indices are lower in premarket trading. After the close yesterday, Super Micro Computer did not disappoint after it’s preannounced earnings announcement last week. It surpassed expectations for earnings, revenues and expectations estimates. The shares are up $65.51 at $561 for a gain of 13.12% from closing levels yesterday. Whirlpool also reported and the market was disappointed (shares down -4.30%). Cleveland Cliffs also disappointed with a decline of -2.81%.

This morning, the earnings picture is showing mostly favorable results with mixed results on the pre-market stock price.

Coming Inc (CLW) – Q4 2023

  • Core EPS: $0.39 (Estimate: $0.39) – MET expectations.
  • Core Revenue: $3.27 billion (Estimate: $3.25 billion) – BEAT expectations.
  • Q1 Forecast:
    • EPS: $0.32 – $0.38 (Estimate: $0.36) – Within expectations.
    • Revenue: $3.1 billion (Estimate: $3.15 billion) – Below expectations.
    • Shares are up 0.55% in pre-market trading

Pfizer Inc (PFE) – Q4 2023

  • Adjusted EPS: $0.10 (Estimate: -$0.22) – BEAT expectations.
  • Revenue: $14.3 billion (Estimate: $14.44 billion) – MISSED expectations.
  • Shares are up 0.25% in pre-market trading

Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) – Q4 2023

  • Adjusted EPS: $3.98 (Estimate: $2.21) – BEAT expectations.
  • Revenue: $36.8 billion (Estimate: $34.66 billion) – BEAT expectations.
  • Capex: $780 million (Estimate: $516 million) – BEAT expectations.
  • Shares are up 2.25% in pre-market trading

JetBlue Airways Corp (JBLU) – Q4 2023

  • Adjusted EPS: -$0.19 (Estimate: -$0.28) – BEAT expectations.
  • Revenue: $2.33 billion (Estimate: $2.28 billion) – BEAT expectations.
  • Shares are down -1.64% in pre-market trading.

PulteGroup Inc (PHM) – Q4 2023

  • EPS: $3.28 (Estimate: $3.22) – BEAT expectations.
  • Revenue: $4.29 billion (Estimate: $4.48 billion) – MISSED expectations.
  • Homes Closed: 7,615 (Estimate: 8,026) – MISSED expectations.
  • Net New Orders: 6,214 (Estimate: 5,675) – BEAT expectations.
  • Shares are up 1.07% in pre-market trading

General Motors Co (GM) – Q4 2023

  • EPS: $1.24 (Estimate: $1.16) – BEAT expectations.
  • Revenue: $42.98 billion (Estimate: $38.97 billion) – BEAT expectations.
  • Shares are up 7.37% in pre-market trading.

United Parcel Service Inc (UPS) – Q4 2023

  • EPS: $2.47 (Estimate: $2.46) – BEAT expectations.
  • Revenue: $24.9 billion (Estimate: $25.44 billion) – MISSED expectations.
  • Shares are down -7.10% in pre-market trading.

After the close, key releases from Microsoft, AMD and Alphabet are to be released. Microsoft shares topped $3 trillion last week the first time ever paradigm by its investment in OpenAI.

  • Microsoft (MSFT)
  • AMD
  • Alphabet (GOOGL)
  • Starbucks (SBUX)
  • Juniper Networks (JNPR)

Looking ahead, the onslaught of big cap earnings does not slow. Below is the schedule of major releases going forward this week:

Wednesday

Before Open:

  • Boeing
  • Phillips 66 (PSX)
  • Mastercard (MA)
  • Boston Scientific

After Close:

Thursday

Before Open:

  • Altria
  • Royal Caribbean Group
  • Peleton
  • Merck (MRK)
  • Honeywell (HON)

After Close:

  • Apple
  • Amazon (AMZN)
  • Meta Platforms (META)

Friday

Before Open:

  • Exxon Mobil (XOM)
  • Chevron (CVX)
  • Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY)
  • Cigna (CI)

A snapshot of the markets as the North American session begins currently shows:

  • Crude oil is trading down $0.52 or -0.69% at $76.26. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $77.86.
  • Gold is trading up $1.88 or 0.09% at $2034.90. At this time yesterday: the price was trading at $2028.97
  • Silver is trading down eight cents or -0.34% at $23.10. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $23.03
  • Bitcoin traded at $43,291. At this time yesterday the price was trading at $42,047.

In the premarket for US stocks, the major indices are lower after gains yesterday that were helped by the lower treasury auction estimates:

  • Dow Industrial Average futures are implying a loss of -88 point. Yesterday the index rose 0.59%.
  • S&P futures are implying a loss of -11.18 points. Yesterday the index rose 0.76%
  • Nasdaq futures are implying a loss of – 40 points. Yesterday the index rose 1.12%

In the European equity markets, the major indices are trading higher:

  • German DAX, +0.2%
  • France CAC +0.43%
  • UK FTSE 100 0.59%
  • Spain’s Ibex +1.23%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.79% (delayed by 10 minutes).

Shares in the Asian Pacific markets were mixed with the China/Hong Kong shares taking on the most heat is concerned about the economy weigh:

  • Japan’s Nikkei 225, +0.11%.
  • China’s Shanghai composite index , -1.83%.
  • Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index, -2.32%.
  • Australia S&P/ASX, +0.29%.

Looking at the US debt market, yields are trading lower to start the trading day. Yesterday the US treasury announced a lower than expected refunding calendar going forward. That sent yields tumbling lower and there has been more buying in trading today.

  • 2-year yield 4.318%, -0.4 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.336%
  • 5-year yield 3.984% -0.9 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.01%
  • 10-year yield 4.071% -2.1 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield is 4.106%
  • 30-year yield 4.299%,,, -3.5 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.342%
  • The 2-10 year spread is at -24.8 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was at -22.9 basis points
  • The 2-30 year spread is at -1.8 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was at Osborne .0 basis points.

In the European debt market, the benchmark 10-year yields are modestly higher with the exception of a small decline in the UK 10 year yield:

European benchmark 10 year yields

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